In 2018, under Trump 1.0, voters in what I called the “Whole Foods suburbs” — high-income, white-collar districts that had elected Republicans for decades — propelled Democrats to a majority in the House. They flipped places like Morris County, New Jersey (Mikie Sherill), Orange County, California (Katie Porter), North Dallas, Texas (Colin Allred), Arapahoe County, Colorado (Jason Crow), and Johnson County, Kansas (Sharice Davids), where President Donald Trump was particularly unpopular.
Today, Democrats are on the brink of a new anti-Trump wave, but their path to the majority is more a step backwards than new advances.
There simply aren’t many Republicans left to oust in the highly educated suburbs, where Trump’s standing has been weak for years. Instead, it’s the places that have swung the most toward Donald Trump over the past decade — seats with many blue-collar, white secular, independent and Hispanic voters — that have the greatest potential to swing back to Democrats in 2026. And many GOP seats that seemed unthinkable targets at the start of the cycle are now in grave jeopardy.
The Republicans’ shocking weaknesses, evident in
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