- U.S. officials say the economic stranglehold is causing serious hardship for Iran and its security forces, while making the regime frustrated and aggressive.
- The White House hopes that this pressure will prompt Iran to reach a deal that includes nuclear concessions. But so far this has not happened.
Driving the news: Cooper said the naval blockade cost Iran $25 billion in lost oil revenue.
- In addition, CENTCOM and the Treasury Department succeeded in recent weeks in freezing $350 million that Iran held in cryptocurrency.
Behind the scenes: In a video message released Friday, Cooper revealed that Iranian-backed groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas and Shiite militias in Iraq – which have been funded by the IRGC for years – must now return the money.
- “The financial pressure on the Iranian military has become so great that reports indicate that Iran-aligned militias across the region are withholding payments from their soldiers in order to redirect money to the IRGC, which is also not paying its troops,” he said.
- Cooper said the Iranian government is withholding salaries, pensions and benefits from public sector workers, including the internal security forces and the IRGC.
State of play: Cooper attributed the significant increase in Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz to “desperation” within the IRGC.
- Despite these attacks, he said the Strait of Hormuz was still open – with 400 ships and 100 million barrels of oil passing through it in the past week.
Yes, but: In recent weeks, CENTCOM has almost completely stopped carrying out strikes against Iranian anti-ship missiles and attack drone launchers in the strait area.
- The pause in strikes, ordered by the White House to avoid an escalation of the war ahead of midterm elections, has made Iran more confident about launching attacks, a US official said.
- Therefore, CENTCOM fears that the increase in ship attacks will make shipping companies think twice before transiting the strait, leading to a decrease in oil outflows and a surge in oil prices.
- U.S. officials say Iran is also attacking more ships to try to raise oil prices and increase pressure on Trump ahead of the midterm elections.
What to watch: The White House and Qatari mediators are still awaiting a response from Iran regarding a U.S. counterproposal to end the war. “This is still the subject of internal deliberations in Tehran,” a US official said.
- Regional mediators have told Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in recent days that Iran should not wait until the midterm elections are over to give its response, a regional source with direct knowledge said.
- Regional mediators have told Iran that there is no guarantee that Trump will be more conciliatory after the midterm elections – on the contrary, he could be more aggressive.
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