Russian leader Vladimir Putin has claimed that Moscow’s forces have captured about 6,500 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory and 310 settlements since the start of 2026. However, independent battlefield assessments suggest that Russia’s actual territorial gains are about 45 times lower than the Kremlin’s claims.
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According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its October 16 assessment, Putin and Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov significantly overestimated Russian advances in several frontline regions, including Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia.
ISW estimates that Russia made a net territorial gain of approximately 144.5 square kilometers between January and September 2026. Russian forces have also experienced periods of territorial losses, including a net loss of approximately 122 square kilometers since September 1.
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October 16, 2026 5:43 p.m.
Gerasimov separately claimed that Russian troops had captured more than 1,800 square kilometers and 92 settlements since September. ISW findings contradict these figures, indicating that Ukrainian counterattacks reversed Russian advances in several sectors.
In the Donetsk region, Putin said Ukrainian forces controlled only about 10 percent of the territory. Instead, ISW estimates that Ukraine retains approximately 5,530 square kilometers, or more than 20% of the region.
The institute also found no evidence supporting Russian claims that they captured Dobropillia or entered Druzhkivka. Russian forces remain at least 12 kilometers from Druzhkivka and nine kilometers from Kramatorsk, according to the assessment.
Similar discrepancies were identified in the Zaporizhzhia region. While Putin claimed that Ukraine controlled only 16.5% of the region, ISW puts Ukrainian control at around 24.6%.
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October 3, 2026 6:00 p.m.
Gerasimov also claimed that Russian forces were less than five kilometers from the town of Zaporizhzhia. ISW placed its positions at least 20.95 kilometers away, or approximately 11.6 kilometers if limited Russian infiltration attempts are taken into account.
In the Sumy region, Russian commanders said they captured more than 300 square kilometers over the summer and fall. ISW estimates Russian territorial gains in the region at just 99.1 square kilometers since the start of 2026.
ISW believes that the Kremlin’s exaggerated battlefield claims are part of a broader information campaign aimed at presenting Russian advances as inevitable and pressuring Ukraine and its Western partners to accept Moscow’s negotiating demands.
Previously, Russia’s net territorial gains in Ukraine fell to their lowest monthly level since June 2023, according to the Finland-based Black Bird Group. Ukrainian counterattacks in northern Donbas have disrupted Russian advances, while expanding drone operations have further slowed Moscow’s offensive.
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