With just over two weeks until the November 3 US midterm elections, Democrats have a three-in-four chance of taking control of the Senate and remain the heavy favorites to take control of the House of Representatives in Nate Silver’s forecast model.
Democrats are ahead of Republicans by 9.6 points in the generic poll, and Donald Trump’s net approval is -22.3.
If the disruption caused by the war in Iran continues into the midterm elections, with oil prices and inflation rising, Republicans risk losing control of the House and Senate, perhaps at huge losses.
With the recent surge in oil prices, gasoline prices are expected to rise again before the midterms.
Trump’s notes
Across Silver’s U.S. national polls, Trump’s net approval is -22.3. Currently, 59.8% disapprove of his performance and 37.6% approve. There haven’t been many polls since Trump announced a diesel import deal with Russia on Oct. 9.
Trump’s net approval was -22.5 in my October 7 article, but fell to a record low of -23.9 on October 9 before a slight recovery. His net approval had improved to -18.7 on September 4 before falling again.
Trump’s net approval is lower than any former president since Harry Truman at this point in his term, with Joe Biden closest at -11.7.
On four issues tracked by Silver, Trump’s net approval is -11.6 for immigration, -30.6 for trade, -32.9 for the economy and -48.9 for inflation. Since my October 7 article, Trump’s net approval on trade has fallen by two points, but has improved by one point on immigration.
Silver also enjoys overall support from the United States for the war in Iran. Currently, 56.2% oppose the war in Iran while 35.2% support it, for a net support of -21.0, up from the record low of -27.9 in my October 7 article.
Midterm elections on November 3
The 435 seats in the federal House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 senators will be elected in the midterm elections on November 3.
In the 2024 elections, Republicans won the House by 220 to 215 over Democrats and the Senate by 53 to 47. Due to Vice President J.D. Vance’s potential vote, Democrats need at least four seats to take control of the Senate.
As I’ve written previously, because of Republican gerrymandering, Democrats need at least a four-point lead in the generic ballot to have a good chance of winning a majority in the House. The Senate is more Republican-friendly because each state has two senators. Democrats need a double-digit margin in the generic runoff to win the Senate evenly.
In Silver’s midterm election forecasting model, the wildcard poll gives Democrats a 51.3 to 41.7 lead over Republicans, a margin of 9.6 points (up from 9.2 points last Wednesday, but the same 9.6 points as in my October 7 article). The Democrats’ lead had fallen to 7.4 points by September 4.
Polls that screen for likely voters generally give Democrats larger leads than polls that survey registered voters. Democrats are more likely to vote in low-turnout elections, such as the midterms, than Republicans, when Trump is not on the ballot.
Silver’s model gives Democrats a 75% chance of winning the Senate and a 94% chance of winning the House, 74% and 93% respectively on October 7. Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate had fallen to 50% by September 7, and their chances of winning the House had fallen to 81% by September 3.
While the uniform swing indicates that Democrats need a double-digit margin in the generic runoff to take control of the Senate, Silver’s model places Democrats as favorites to win by a 5-6 point margin in the wildcard runoff. In the House, Democrats are favored if they win by 2 to 3 points.
Read more: The American mood is darkening and Republicans risk paying the price in the midterms
Democrats lead Republicans by one to four points in polls in Kansas, Iowa, Texas, Alaska and Ohio. Trump won all of these states by double-digit margins in 2024. In Nebraska, a Republican is just 0.1 points ahead of an independent. But Democrats lead by just 2.8 points in Maine, which Kamala Harris won by 6.9 points.
Silver said Saturday that Democrats are leading in polls in 54 Senate races (including ineligible seats). If the polls are basically right nationally, Democrats have an 88% chance of winning the Senate, with an average of 52.4 senators.
If polls consistently overestimate Democrats by 3 to 4 points nationally, Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate fall to 38%, with an average of 49.7 senators. But if polls underestimate Democrats by 3 to 4 points nationally, their chances of winning the Senate are 99%, with an average of 54.6 senators.
Economic data
Americans currently pay an average of $4.30 per gallon for regular gasoline (gasoline in the United States), up from $4.36 per gallon in my October 7 article and $4.48 on September 25. Due to profits and taxes, the retail price of gasoline will be higher than the price of raw materials.
Gasoline prices rose from a low of $2.99 per gallon on August 27 to $3.59 on September 23, but fell back to their current level of $3.19 per gallon.
However, international benchmark Brent crude rose from US$96.16 a barrel on September 29 to US$109.86 last Friday, its highest level since May. There appears to be a lag between the evolution of oil prices and gasoline prices, so gasoline prices are expected to rise again before the midterms.
In Silver’s models, Trump and the Republicans were at their highest in early September, shortly after the August 27 low point in gasoline prices.
The September inflation report was released last Wednesday. Due to high gasoline prices, inflation increased to 0.6% in September, compared to 0.4% in August. Core inflation increased by 0.3%, as in August. Annual inflation was 3.7%, the highest it has ever been before the midterm elections since 1990, except during the COVID pandemic. Core annual inflation was 2.6%.
Real wages (adjusted for inflation) fell by 0.5% in hourly and weekly terms in September due to high inflation and weak wage growth. Annual real wages fell by 0.7% in hourly terms and by 0.1% in weekly terms.
After cumulative losses of 1.9% over the last three trading sessions, the benchmark US stock index S&P was down 2.0% last Friday from its October 6 peak. But it remains up 10.3% from its peak in the week before the Iran war began in late February and 16.2% from its worst point of the Iran war in late March.
Gn headline
