Oracle (ORCL) fell 54% and 80% of analysts still say buy. For what?

Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) closed at $134.47 on October 15. The stock has returned -24.60% over the past 6 months, compared to a return of 15.4% for the Insider Monkey Billionaires Index and 11.4% for the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust.

Oracle sells database software and, increasingly, the computing power that runs other companies’ artificial intelligence work. The second company is newer, much more expensive to start, and may be the reason the stock performed the way it did. The stock has lost 53.84% of its value over the past year. Despite this, 80% of analysts covering it still rate it as a buy, and their median target is 78.48% above the current price, according to CNN.

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Oracle (ORCL) fell 54% and 80% of analysts still say buy. For what?
Oracle (ORCL) fell 54% and 80% of analysts still say buy. For what?

What analysts are watching:

The company continues to grow rapidly. In the last quarter, revenue increased by almost a third and profits grew even faster. Nothing in these figures explains a drop in price of more than half.

What analysts evaluate is the order book. Oracle has signed contracts to provide long-term computing capabilities, and those commitments now total $638 billion for annual revenue well below that size.

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What the market is looking at:

These contracts must be constructed before they can be invoiced. Oracle’s own cash flow statement shows $75.66 billion in capital expenditures over the past year, compared to $46.94 billion in cash generated from operations. The company pays much more than it takes in.

Money is being borrowed, on a scale that has left Oracle with a different kind of balance sheet than it had before this build began. The disagreement is therefore not really about the existence or not of the orders. It’s about knowing what it costs to make them happen and whether the returns on all that spending come before borrowing becomes a problem.

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Two ways of reading the same company:

Shares trade at 17.76 times what analysts expect next year. For a company growing at this rate, neither that nor the 22.66 times what it earned over the past year are demanding, which is what makes the stock price so strange.

The two sides do not disagree on the facts. They set different prices for it. The first is to set the price of contracts won by Oracle. The other is to price the money spent to serve them. Both are interested in the same business, and neither is obviously wrong.

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Conclusion:

Such a large gap between price and targets usually means that the two sides are not arguing over the same issue. Here, analysts count what was ordered and the market counts what is spent. Whether construction will pay off depends on returns that no one can yet measure, which is exactly the kind of question that a price target addresses poorly. Monitor the cash flow rather than the order book, because that’s where the debate is settled.

Market Sentiment:

Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) was owned by 119 hedge funds with a combined stake value of approximately $7.00 billion as of the end of Q2 2026 in Insider Monkey database. This is up from 115 hedge fund holders with a cumulative investment value of approximately $5.53 billion in the previous quarter.

While we recognize ORCL’s potential as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you’re looking for a hugely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the reshoring trend, check out our free report on the best AI stock in the short term.

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This article was originally published on Initiated Monkey.

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