Booming exports boosted China’s economic growth in the third quarter of this year, as industrial production grew much faster than consumer spending.
China’s GDP grew 4.5% year-on-year between July and September, the National Bureau of Statistics of China reported on Monday. The numbers were better than economists expected and up from the second quarter’s 4.3% growth rate.
China’s economy has now grown 4.6% in the first nine months of the year, putting it on track to meet the government’s 2026 target of 4.5% to 5% growth without additional stimulus measures.
Industrial production rose 5.5% in September, up from 5.2% in August, while retail sales rose just 1.1%, down from 0.4%.
Duncan Wrigley, chief China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomys, said policymakers in Beijing would likely conclude that their efforts to stabilize overall growth in the third quarter were successful.
“Overall industrial production rose in September, driven in part by coal mine activity resuming after safety inspections prompted by a major accident. Manufacturing production growth remained robust at 6.0% year-on-year in September, supported by stronger export demand for electronics, AI-related equipment and automobiles,” Wrigley said.
“High-tech manufacturing continues to outperform traditional sectors as China moves up the value-added ladder,” Wrigley added.
However, fixed capital investment fell 7.2% in the first nine months, real estate investment fell 20.6% and infrastructure spending remained weak.
Data last week showed Chinese exports jumped by more than a third in September, driven by a surge in shipments of AI-related electronics.
“This recovery in GDP growth primarily reflects continued strength in exports linked to the global AI and technology boom, more than offsetting drags from the Iranian conflict and continued weakness in domestic demand,” ABN Amro analysts said.
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