EDMONTON, Alberta (AP) — Voters The oil-rich Canadian province of Alberta decided Monday whether to begin a process that could lead to independence, testing national unity as Canadians mobilize against U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war and threats to claim Canada as the 51st U.S. state.
Monday’s vote is not direct independence referendum. Alberta, home to most of Canada’s proven oil reserves – the fourth largest in the world – will decide whether it wants to remain a province or begin the legal process for a future referendum on separation.
More than 1.35 million Albertans, or 43 per cent of eligible voters, voted early or by special ballot ahead of Monday’s referendum, an unusually high level of early turnout that underscores intense interest in the province’s future. Polling stations close at 8 p.m. local time, and results are expected within hours.
Alberta is Canada’s oil heartland and cowboy country, a conservative bastion whose political culture has long had more in common with the American West than with much of Canada. Resentment toward Ottawa runs deep, but has not traditionally translated into widespread support for independence.
But even if Albertans reject the proposal, separatist leaders say the movement has transformed a fringe cause into a force in provincial politics and won’t go away.
Prime Minister Mark Carney urged Albertans to secure a decisive vote in favor of unity. “Vote like the future of Canada depends on it because it does,” he said Friday at a rally in Edmonton, where he grew up.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who called the referendum despite her opposition to independence, cited a poll showing only 22 per cent support for separation, a figure she said is still too high.
The vote also comes as Alberta reels from a grass fire that suddenly turned into a military training exercise at Canadian Forces Base Wainwright, killing four soldiers and injuring 39 others, 19 of them seriously.
Crowds erupt when Carney talks about the United States
The biggest cheers at Carney’s rallies in Calgary and Edmonton came when he spoke about diversifying Canada’s trade away from the United States. The applause showed how Trump’s trade war and threats of annexation have fueled Canadian nationalism, even in traditionally conservative Alberta.
Liberal prime ministers have long dealt with Albertans’ resentment over federal energy policies, but Carney has become a particularly popular figure by supporting policies more friendly to fossil fuels, such as a proposed oil pipeline to the Pacific coast.
Joining Smith in a show of unity against independence, Carney warned the referendum comes at the “worst possible time” and urged Albertans not to use their vote simply to send a message to Ottawa.
Smith, who has frequently clashed with Justin Trudeau, praised Carney for improving relations.
“I think what we can agree on is that we have seen real change over the last 18 months,” she said Friday.
Smith opposes separation
By calling a referendum that she opposes, Smith acknowledged pressure from separatist activists within the ruling United Conservative Party who helped her take power. Some of these activists helped oust former Prime Minister Jason Kenney in 2022.
Kenney said separatism has traditionally been a fringe cause, with pro-independence parties typically attracting only 1 to 2 percent of the vote. He said the the pandemic mobilized activists angry at public health restrictions and government authority.
Separatist leader Jeff Rath said federal COVID-19 vaccine mandates pushed him toward independence, while Tanya Clemens, co-chair of Let Alberta Decide, said pandemic restrictions boosted political organizing. Keith Wilson, the group’s other co-chair, was a lead lawyer for the Trucker convoy 2022 that paralyzed downtown Ottawa for weeks in a protest against vaccination mandates and other COVID-19 restrictions.
Alberta’s long-standing grievances with Ottawa
Wilson argues that Alberta’s grievances run deeper. With much of Canada’s population concentrated in Ontario and Quebec, he said Liberal governments can win elections without significant support in Alberta, leaving the province vulnerable to federal policies opposed by its energy industry.
Wilson says Carney’s Pacific Link pipeline project illustrates the dysfunction, saying federal restrictions have discouraged private investment and could leave taxpayers funding the project.
At the same time, Wilson rejected Alberta becoming a U.S. state.
“I have no interest in replacing a master who governs the future of my children, who is in Ottawa, with a new one who is in Washington,” he declared.
Other separatist leaders have sought contact with the Trump administration. Rath and his fellow independence advocates met three times with U.S. State Department officials in Washington to discuss Alberta’s future.
Chief Sheldon Sunshine of the Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation condemned the meetings, calling them “absolutely traitorous to the people of Canada, the people of Alberta.”
Sunshine said Alberta could not leave Canada without consent from First Nations, citing treaties that predate the province — and said his nation would remain part of Canada even if Albertans voted for independence.
Separatists see success even without victory
Whatever the outcome, the referendum campaign has generated an unprecedented debate about Alberta’s place in Canada, Wilson said.
“I think we’ve already had some success when you look at voter turnout,” he said. “People are engaged and talking about this topic at a level unprecedented in history. »
Rath said he would be thrilled if 30 per cent of Albertans voted to begin the separation process. He wants Smith ousted as UCP leader and has said the party could split, potentially creating a new pro-independence political party.
Separation debate could last longer than Monday’s vote
Some Albertans hope Monday’s vote will end the debate and prevent a protracted independence struggle like Quebec’s.
Dave Malka, a 59-year-old government worker from Edmonton who was attending a pro-Canada rally Sunday, criticized spending on what he called a “referendum on a referendum” when the money could have gone to health care.
As Trump threatens Canada, Malka said: “This seems to be happening at the worst time, when we should be united, instead we are fighting among ourselves. »
Malka expects a decisive rejection but fears the separatists will not give up. “This is just the beginning of Separation Armageddon, if you will. This is their starting point,” he said.
Jake Graham, 35, of Calgary, attended Carney’s rallies wearing maple leaf pants and a Canada hockey jacket, hoping voters will end talk of separation.
“I hope this solves this problem for a long time and it’s clear and decisive, that these grumblings go away for a while and we can be a united Canada,” he said.
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