Experts say the Trump administration’s budget cuts to weather satellites will set the country back nearly a decade. The loss of data used to observe, predict and research extreme weather events could prevent the country from making major advances in weather forecasting in the years to come.
That conclusion comes from a new report released Friday by the Government Accountability Office and a letter sent Monday to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration by Democratic lawmakers.
The GAO report details the consequences of budget cuts to the program to develop new geostationary weather satellites. These large satellites orbit the Earth at a fixed distance, centered on specific locations on the planet. They take images of swirling clouds and storm systems that people see every day on the evening news or on their weather app. The data collected by these satellites is crucial for issuing accurate weather forecasts.
The budget cuts aim to take the program from $19.6 billion in life-cycle costs to $13 billion. But they introduce the risk of a gap in satellite coverage between when the first of the current geostationary satellites, known as the GOES-R series, reaches the end of its life and when the first new satellite comes online in 2032, the GAO found.
Any interruption in satellite coverage, which GAO estimates could last several months, would deprive meteorologists of vital weather observations and could reduce forecast accuracy.
CNN has reached out to NOAA for comment.
The new satellite program is called the Geostationary Extended Observations, or GeoXO, program. Last year, the Trump administration ordered NOAA and NASA, which is working with NOAA to develop the spacecraft, to reduce the number of satellites that would be part of the new constellation from six to four, and to eliminate three of the five instruments those satellites would each carry.
As CNN reported last year, the instrument changes were partly driven by a desire to restrict satellites’ applicability to weather forecasting, rather than also conducting climate research. Among the instruments that were removed: a tool to monitor air quality, including hourly monitoring of wildfire smoke; as well as another intended to study water quality and ocean currents, as well as harmful algae blooms.
But so was a new version of an instrument carried by the GOES-R satellites, known as the Geostationary Lightning Mapper. This sensor, first deployed on a GOES satellite in 2017, can detect lightning anywhere on the globe and has proven useful in predicting tornadoes as well as monitoring the rapid intensification of tropical storms and hurricanes. Other applications include aviation weather forecasting and wildfire monitoring.
The first GeoXO satellite will not have any of these instruments on board when it launches in 2032, the GAO report said. Instead, it will carry tools already available on previous satellite models, such as a visible and infrared imager to track storms during the day and night and an infrared sounder that can be particularly useful for feeding data to weather models by taking a vertical snapshot of the atmosphere. Sonar data includes conditions such as wind speed and direction as well as humidity levels.
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NOAA originally planned to operate three geostationary satellites simultaneously, one over the eastern United States, one over the central United States, and another over the west. Additionally, NOAA requires that a spare satellite be capable of taking over from one of the operational satellites in the event of an instrument failure or other incident.
However, given new budget cuts and instrument changes, there will now only be one GeoXO satellite over the East and one over the West, plus a backup satellite.
The GAO questioned whether these new satellites were more advanced than those in orbit. “It is unclear whether GeoXO will improve, or even maintain, the features available in the current generation of satellites,” the report said.
The absence of the lightning mapper represents a loss of capabilities compared to the current generation of GOES-R satellites.
“Our need for weather information is much greater today than it was a decade ago,” said Steve Volz, former director of NOAA’s satellite division and now CEO of HyperionEO LLC, a consulting firm specializing in Earth observation. He said the other rejected instruments would have specifically addressed the “requirements set forth by Congress.” He warned that cuts to GeoXO satellite instruments could put the United States behind Europe, Japan and China in improving forecast accuracy.
The top Democrat on the House Science Committee, Zoe Lofgren, and Democratic member Gabe Amo wrote in a letter to the NOAA administrator on Monday that the administration is on the verge of setting the United States back years in weather forecasting rather than improving its capabilities.
“Thanks to the Trump administration, the next generation of U.S. weather satellites may very well be worse than current satellites,” the letter reads. first shared with CNN, states.
“Two fewer satellites and three fewer scientific instruments are not budget items. They represent a concrete, tangible weakening of America’s ability to understand weather, climate, and the world around us,” the letter said.
The letter requests information from NOAA leadership regarding any cost-benefit analysis conducted regarding the loss of certain GeoXO instruments, among other documents.
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