Rural voter support for Republicans plummets ahead of November election

Republicans have had their share of good and bad election nights this century, but they have generally been able to count on the heartland.

Once evenly divided, rural voters have become significantly more Republican over the past two decades. Nearly two-thirds of these voters supported President Trump in the 2024 election.

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Fox News Power Rankings on rural voters. (Remy Numa/Fox News)

Today, just under half of rural voters say they will support the GOP again in November.

Like other groups, rural Americans worry about paying their bills. According to a recent survey, 19% of respondents said the rising cost of living was their biggest economic problem, with gas and energy costs not far behind.

Fox News Power Rankings on rural voters. (Remy Numa/Fox News)

The Trump administration has, in part, tried to counter these concerns by talking about job growth and the AI ​​boom, but rural voters are also frustrated by these issues.

Less than a quarter of rural voters believe the economy is healthy and unemployment is a focus: 8% view lack of jobs and unemployment as their top economic problem, and only 28% believe there are good or excellent job opportunities in their community.

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Fox News Power Rankings on rural voters. (Remy Numa/Fox News)

Data centers are also part of the problem. Only 2% of respondents called it their biggest economic problem, but that number is bigger than it seems. For 1 in 50 rural voters, data centers are a bigger issue than housing, cost of living or getting a job.

These factors have placed the Republicans in a difficult situation on all fronts.

Senate forecast from Fox News Power Rankings. (Remy Numa/Fox News)

It’s why core states like Ohio and Iowa have been competitive most of the year and why more rural districts, including some that Trump won by double digits, are becoming margin-of-error races.

Fox News Power Rankings on rural voters. (Remy Numa/Fox News)

Even putting the polls aside, there are signs that the rural vote is on shakier footing. Wyoming Viewers see the announcements this week for Republican candidate Chuck Gray who doesn’t mention Trump or the GOP. Two years ago, Trump won 71.6% of the vote there – his best performance in any state and in an election.

Low rural turnout or party switching would make many races closer than the GOP would like, including in Florida, Mississippi and South Carolina.

Four states deserve to be singled out because of another complicating factor.

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Senate forecast from Fox News Power Rankings. (Remy Numa/Fox News)

This year, prominent independent candidates are running for Senate against a Republican in four densely rural states: Idaho, Montana, Nebraska and South Dakota.

They advocate anti-establishment policies such as term limits in Congress and bans on lobbying and focus heavily on corruption, the top concern of voters in last week’s Fox News. survey.

And all four say they won’t caucus with either party or would form their own independent caucus if elected.

With the Democratic brand still relatively weak nationwide and abysmal in those states, the party has completely withdrawn from the race in three of the four states (in Montana, a Democrat remains on the ballot, although support for her has declined).

Normally, frustrated partisans stay home in scenarios like these, letting the ruling party win by a more modest margin. This year, those voters have the option to run for a different candidate, so the margin could narrow.

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Fox News Power Rankings on rural voters. (Remy Numa/Fox News)

All of these states have been competitive over the past decade. Former Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat, retained his Montana seat in 2018; Republicans scored single-digit victories in South Dakota and Nebraska (where the same independent is running again this year), and even Idaho had a gubernatorial race by less than 15 points in 2014.

These states could be close again.

Governor’s forecast from Fox News Power Rankings. (Remy Numa/Fox News)

In this week’s Power Rankings, two governor races become more competitive as the final two weeks of campaigning begin.

Florida

The Sunshine State is the beating heart of the “MAGA” movement. Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis have performed better each time they have run, with the latter winning his last re-election bid by nearly 20 points.

Governor’s forecast from Fox News Power Rankings. (Remy Numa/Fox News)

Thanks in part to this performance, Republicans have gained structural advantages, including a gap of 1.5 million registered voters and a resilient get-out-the-vote operation.

But DeSantis’ first victory came by about 30,000 votes (or 0.4 points) and in an environment similar to the one we find ourselves in now.

Fox News Power Rankings on Hispanic Voters. (Remy Numa/Fox News)

Here, Hispanic voters will play an outsized role, and polls suggest that a large share of them have drifted away from the GOP. In last week’s national Fox survey, 31 percent of Hispanic voters said they preferred the Republican candidate over the Democratic candidate. This represents a 12-point drop from their support for Trump in 2024.

The Republican candidate, Rep. Byron Donalds, will be happy to have DeSantis’ support. He remains popular in the state. Donalds still has the advantage over Democrat and former Rep. David Jolly, who hopes former President Bill Clinton can shore up his support when they appear together for the first time. Today.

Still, this race is not a sure thing for the GOP. Florida is moving from Likely R to Lean R.

Nebraska

In Nebraska, Republican Governor Jim Pillen is seeking a second term. He won the first time with a 23-point victory, but with suburban and rural voters hesitant against Trump this cycle, the battle could be tougher.

Fox News Power Rankings on the governor’s forecast. (Remy Numa/Fox News)

Three other factors play a role.

First, the presence of Dan Osborn, one of four notable independents on the ballot in this year’s Senate elections, could increase Democratic turnout for challenger Lynne Walz in a gubernatorial race that would otherwise attract less attention.

There’s Pillen himself, who faced local resistance above a 5% drop. budget cut and a hiring freeze in state government.

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Finally, the runoff, which will feature third-party challenger Brett Lindstrom, a former state lawmaker who lost to Pillen in a Republican primary four years prior. He will appear on the ballot as an “America First” candidate. The party was founded in July.