U.S. President Donald Trump addressed supporters in Kansas on Monday to launch a seven-state election campaign in the territory he held in 2024, as dismal polls and surprisingly close elections in Republican strongholds fuel fears of sweeping Democratic midterm gains in November.
With 15 days until the Nov. 3 vote, Trump’s rally in suburban Wichita called on voters to turn out and support Sen. Roger Marshall, who is locked in a standoff with Methodist megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton.
“Whatever you do, get out and vote,” Trump urged the crowd in a speech reiterating his promises to end his unpopular war in Iran, make his tax cuts permanent and bring prosperity to Americans.
“All you have to do is participate. If you participate, we will win,” he added.
Trump won Kansas by 16 percentage points just two years ago, and the state hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932.
Yet analysts now consider it a “toss-up,” and a key fundraising group for Republican senators has diverted money from North Carolina to defend a seat it once took for granted.
Control of Congress could hinge on such elections, with Republicans holding slim majorities in both chambers and Democrats needing a net gain of just four seats to capture the Senate.
– Soaring costs –
Over the next six days, Trump will follow Kansas with rallies in the Carolinas, Iowa, Florida, Georgia and Michigan. All seven states supported him in 2024, although his margins in Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina were narrow.
The timeline suggests the goal is less to win over undecided voters than to drum up loyal supporters, many of whom stay home when he’s not on the ballot.
Two stops, North Carolina and Iowa, are doing some damage control in Republican-held seats, and many national party officials have all but written off North Carolina.
Elsewhere, the party is going on the offensive, targeting a Democratic-held seat in Michigan, although it is struggling to make headway in Georgia.
Vice President JD Vance is campaigning separately in North Carolina, Ohio and Nebraska, where the incumbent Republican senator faces a strong challenge from an independent.
A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos survey released Sunday puts Trump’s approval rating at 33%, the lowest of any of his terms in this poll, with 66% disapproving. An NBC News poll released the same day put him at 34 percent.
When asked which party they would support in Congress, likely voters favored Democrats by eight points in the post-ABC poll, and registered voters by 10 points in NBC’s.
The numbers suggest a possible Democratic wave, although national polls don’t translate clearly into seats, especially after partisan redistricting, and may miss by several points in either direction.
– Headwinds –
The economy has become a heavy burden for a president who has promised to lower prices.
Fuel prices have soared since the United States went to war with Iran, and tariffs have added to pressure on consumers, particularly farmers in agricultural states like Iowa and Kansas.
Theater director Kim Klein, 64, who lives near Wichita, was among hundreds of people outside the gathering who were unable to attend the crowded event.
“He’s done so much for us,” Klein said of Trump after calling on his fellow Republicans to vote. “He needs time. It’s only been two years. This thing takes time.”
Even immigration, which remains Trump’s highest-rated issue, is drawing backlash, with 56 percent of respondents in the Post-ABC poll saying his deportation campaign has gone too far.
Democrats are turning this discontent into campaign cash. Third-quarter filings showed their Senate candidates far outperforming Republicans in Ohio, Iowa and other key races.
Just over nine million votes have already been cast nationwide, according to the University of Florida Election Lab.
In Texas, where early voting began Monday, Democrat James Talarico raised about $64 million, a record quarter for a Senate candidate, and more than triple Republican Ken Paxton’s $18 million.
In House races, at least 47 Republican incumbents have been edged out by Democratic or independent challengers, according to Punchbowl News.
Republicans are counting on outside groups to fill the gap, funded in part by Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, who has given some $366 million this election cycle, including $158 million to Paxton.
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