The midterm elections in the United States on November 3 are dominating national and international news.
The stakes of the election are high. The midterm race will determine which party controls the U.S. Congress and, in turn, determine the direction of the final two years of Trump’s term. He will also decide on key positions at national and local level.
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But scoring big victories in the midterm elections may not be enough to shake up the balance of power in Washington, DC.
To understand the implications of this year’s midterm elections and what might come next, Al Jazeera has put together this simple primer.
Here’s why the U.S. midterm elections matter at the federal level.
Battle for the US House of Representatives and Senate
Midterm elections take place halfway through the presidential term, meaning the executive office will not appear on the ballot.
At the forefront will be the battle for control of Congress. Two chambers make up the American legislative body: the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Since House members serve two-year terms, all 435 House seats will be up for election on November 3. However, most elections are already considered formalities, with a clear favorite.
That leaves just a handful of races — about 50 — to decide who wins a majority in the House.
Although this is subject to change, almost every reputable election forecaster has predicted that Democrats will take control of the House, some with as many as 15 seats.
Democrats, however, are less likely to win a majority in the Senate.
This room only has 100 seats. But because senators serve staggered six-year terms, only 35 seats are up for election. Only a dozen of these races are considered competitive.
Still, Democrats saw their chances of capturing the Senate increase, as the number of competitive races increased.
Left-leaning candidates have made inroads in deep red states like Texas and Kansas, creating more opportunities for the Democratic Party to claim a Senate majority this election cycle.
Because the U.S. vice president breaks ties in the Senate, Democrats would need 51 seats to control the chamber.
What does party control mean?
Congress passes laws and approves federal budgets. But even if one party gains a majority in both houses of Congress, it may not be enough to control the nation’s legislative agenda.
Laws can pass with a simple majority in the House, but they typically require a supermajority of 60 votes in the Senate to overcome a process known as a filibuster. This process can allow a minority group to block legislation indefinitely, short of a supermajority.
Therefore, unless a party wins more than 60 seats in the Senate, most legislation will still require at least some level of bipartisan support to pass.
Even if legislation passes both houses, the president can veto any bill that comes before him. To override a presidential veto, a two-thirds supermajority is required in the House and Senate.
It is extremely rare to achieve the broad bipartisan support needed to overcome a presidential veto.
The last time this happened was in January 2021, during Trump’s first term. At the time, the US president had lost the 2020 election and saw his support from Republican lawmakers dissipate when he tried to veto a defense spending bill.
There are, however, cases where bipartisan support outweighs presidential objections. A bill to increase housing supply passed the House and Senate with veto-proof majorities earlier this year, despite Trump’s stated opposition.
So what happens if Republicans retain control of Congress?
Republicans currently hold two majorities in Congress, with 53 seats in the Senate and 218 in the House.
With Trump in the White House, that means the party has held what’s known as a governing “trifecta” for the past two years, with three levers of power under its command.
Republican majorities in Congress helped Trump pass some of his signature laws, including increasing funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and eliminating some forms of publicly funded health care as part of a sweeping 2025 tax bill.
But the number of Republicans was not enough to surpass Trump’s entire legislative wish list. In particular, he was unable to pass his federal voter identification law, called the “SAVE America Act,” amid Democratic opposition.
There have also been a handful of issues where Republicans have challenged Trump, including on tariffs. Some Republicans also voted to assert congressional authority over the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
If the Republican Party retains control of the House and Senate in the November elections, its majorities could continue to support Trump’s legislative agenda. But there is an important caveat.
Lawmakers will keep a close eye on voter sentiment as the 2028 election approaches. With Trump unable to seek a third term, some Republicans may be more inclined to publicly oppose the lame-duck president over the next two years, in order to improve their electoral prospects.
If Republicans retain control of the Senate but lose the House, they could still help Trump confirm his nominees for key federal posts.
Hundreds of federal positions require approval by a simple majority in the Senate, including roles in the judiciary, including Supreme Court justices.
What if the Democrats took control?
The party that controls Congress, with few exceptions, can determine what legislation comes up for a vote and when.
But for Democrats, the most important outcome of a majority in one or both chambers would be the ability to block Trump from legislating his agenda over the next two years.
That said, analysts expect a Democratic-led Congress to take a largely defensive stance, rejecting Trump’s proposals.
Going on the offensive – and passing its own legislative agenda – will be much more difficult, even if the party wins majorities in the House and Senate. Democratic-led legislation would still face Trump’s veto.
However, holding majorities would help Democratic members slip their policy priorities into “need-to-pass” funding legislation. The specter of a government shutdown could push Republicans to pass budget bills, even if they don’t agree on all the terms.
Democrats can also bring issues to a vote to force congressional Republicans to oppose popular policies or simply take a public stand on controversial issues.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries laid out a 100-day plan if Democrats take control of the chamber. Top of the agenda are votes on Trump-backed health care funding cuts, asserting congressional authority over the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and canceling Trump’s tariff program.
These questions have divided the Republican base and would pose thorny dilemmas for lawmakers already preparing for the 2028 vote.
Will Democrats Impeach Trump?
As Trump mobilizes on behalf of Republicans in the run-up to the November vote, he has repeatedly expressed fear that Democratic control of Congress could lead to one eventuality: his third impeachment.
Trump has already been impeached twice during his first term. “If we don’t win, they’re going to eventually impeach me,” he said at a rally in Durant, Oklahoma, in early October.
If Democrats take control of the House or Senate, they will take over dozens of committees. Through these committees, they can launch investigations – with subpoena power – into a wide range of topics.
Some Democrats have already said that investigating the Trump family’s corruption allegations would be a top priority.
House lawmakers can also introduce articles of impeachment and ultimately vote to impeach federal officials, including the president, by a simple majority.
However, the Senate will have to vote to convict the official by a two-thirds majority before it can remove him from office.
Perhaps more importantly, if Democrats took control of the Senate, they would be able to block confirmation of Trump’s nominees to key positions during his final two years in office.
So, what will change in the war with Iran and in the economy?
A Democratic surge is likely a sign of dissatisfaction with the Trump administration, but there won’t be rapid, tangible change on many of the issues that have defined the election season.
For example, if Democrats were to gain both majorities in Congress, they could use their influence to seek to address affordability issues, delving deeper into topics like housing, health care, and cost of living.
But there’s little they can do to immediately change the myriad factors that have led to high gas and grocery prices. Any gains would likely be hard-won, slow and incremental.
The same goes for the war between the United States, Israel and Iran.
Under the U.S. Constitution, only Congress can declare war, something it has not done since World War II. Presidents have long used various legal arguments to circumvent this constitutional requirement.
More recently, the Trump administration argued that the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran did not require congressional authorization because the president had a duty to protect the American people.
Trump also argued that the war has started and stopped several times, each time renewing the 60-day deadline he has to receive authorization from Congress.
To reassert Congress’s power to declare war, Democrats could pass a legally binding “war powers resolution” to rein in Trump, but they would need two-thirds support to overcome the presidential veto.
Even if a resolution were to overcome the veto, experts say it is unclear how the American justice system would react if Trump ignored the will of Congress.
Democrats could, however, use their control of Congress to try to stifle all funding for the war.
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