Middle East oil exports return to pre-war levels

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Middle East oil exports have returned to pre-war levels, with shipping companies using alternative routes to bypass choke points such as the conflict-targeted Strait of Hormuz.

In the week to October 18, shipments from Gulf oil producers excluding Iran averaged 24.6 million barrels per day, higher than the pre-war average of 23.3 million, according to data compiled by Kpler.

That brings the seven-day average of exports to its highest level since mid-February, days before the United States and Israel struck Iran, sparking a war that crippled exports from the world’s largest oil-producing region.

The figures, which are far more volatile than before the war, are preliminary and include the Strait of Hormuz – through which the vast majority of the region’s pre-war exports passed – ship-to-ship transfers just beyond the narrow waterway and flows from Red Sea ports.

Shipments through Hormuz itself are still more than a third lower than before the war, according to the data.

Despite the region’s rebound in exports, the price of oil has risen in recent months as markets for some petroleum products show increasing signs of strain, and on Tuesday Brent crude, the international benchmark, hit its highest level since May. On Wednesday, it was up 2.1 percent at $111.03.

Saudi Arabia has shipped much of the oil through its Red Sea port of Yanbu in response to attacks on ships sailing in the Gulf, but flows using this alternative route have declined periodically in response to attacks on the pipeline that serves the port and on nearby ships. For example, flows through Yanbu declined following a mid-September attack on the pipeline that connects Saudi oil production to the port. These volumes have since rebounded after Saudi Aramco completed pipeline repair work.

The region’s oil exports remained strong this month despite a surge in attacks on ships. UK Maritime Trade Operations, which monitors such incidents, reported 28 attacks on ships in the region in October, following 18 in September.