President Donald Trump has confirmed that he has invested more than $300 million of his political war chest into the 2026 midterm elections.
New campaign finance records released Tuesday night show millions flocking to House districts that were barely competitive two years ago, underscoring how widespread the GOP’s problems have become in the final weeks of the campaign.
MAGA Inc., Trump’s main super political action committee, reported $300.5 million in disbursements through Oct. 14, with a quarter of that election cycle total — $75.5 million — spent in the first two weeks of October, according to new Federal Election Commission filings. He still held $164.3 million in cash, and Trump said Tuesday that his political operation would spend more than $400 million by Election Day.
Much of the money is flowing through two new Trump-aligned groups. MAGA Inc. sent $200 million to No Going Back PAC and $25 million to Safety & Affordability PAC, which have already reported more than $209 million in independent expenditures between them, according to FEC filings.
The spending should also ease months of concern among Republicans, who feared that Trump would sit on his massive war chest rather than deploy it in the midterms. GOP operatives were concerned as late as September that MAGA Inc.’s cash flow was largely sitting on the sidelines.
Safety & Affordability spent $3.76 million in Arizona’s 1st District, $1.84 million in Maine’s 2nd, $1.6 million in Wisconsin’s 3rd, $1.48 million in North Carolina’s 1st, and $1.4 million in Ohio’s 10th. He also invested more than $1 million each in Pennsylvania’s 8th, Ohio’s 9th and Michigan’s 7th, according to a CNBC analysis of the PAC’s filing.
Several are established battlefields. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter ranks Wisconsin 3rd, North Carolina 1st, Pennsylvania 8th, Ohio 9th and Michigan 7th among its 21 “Toss Up” races.
Other places given by Trump show that Republicans are being forced into less familiar territory.
In Ohio’s 10th District, the Safety and Affordability PAC spent about $1.4 million to defend Republican Rep. Mike Turner, who won by 18 points in 2024. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee now ranks the seat among a new tier of possible pickups in 2026, while the National Republican Congressional Committee only began spending there this month, according to AdImpact.
No Going Back also spent about $5 million each in Michigan’s 4th and North Carolina’s 11th, while investing an additional $14.4 million combined in Florida’s Democratic-held 14th and 25th, according to a CNBC analysis of the PAC’s FEC filing.
At the same time, other Republican groups are starting to sort things out. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with House Speaker Mike Johnson, has halted its ad spending in Iowa’s First, New Jersey’s Seventh, Michigan’s Eighth and Ohio’s First, the Associated Press reported last week. Trump-aligned groups, meanwhile, spent about $1.4 million on those four races, according to a CNBC analysis of FEC filings.
Republicans still hold the advertising advantage in 25 of the 42 House races rated “Toss Up” or “Lean” Republican or Democratic by the Cook Report, according to AdImpact. But the political environment continues to shift toward the Democrats. Of the 21 House races that Cook calls “Toss Ups,” 16 are held by Republicans and five by Democrats.
Trump’s PACs also spent a lot of money in the Senate, according to the new filings. No Going Back has spent nearly $30 million in Michigan, $27.8 million in Ohio, $11.8 million in New Hampshire and $9.9 million in North Carolina, according to a CNBC analysis of new FEC filings. These four races alone represent approximately $79 million.
Trump’s own position may help explain this pressure. A New York Times/Siena College poll released Wednesday puts his approval rating at 36 percent, with 59 percent disapproving.
Voters in the poll disapproved of his handling of the cost of living 69% to 29% and the price of gasoline 73% to 24%. Democrats led by 10 points when voters were presented with the House candidates actually running in their districts.
Trump’s allies are also trying to solve a turnout problem: getting voters who supported him in the presidential election to turn out when he’s not on the ballot.
MAGA Inc., in its latest filing, reported a $16.2 million disbursement on Oct. 8 titled “voter education.” The New York Times reported Tuesday that the group has run more than 2,200 unique ads on Facebook and Instagram in more than 20 states, urging Republicans to vote early or turn out.
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