In this July 2026 file photo, President Trump shows an executive order he signed in the Oval Office of the White House.
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Voters have historically low confidence in Republicans’ ability to handle key issues like immigration and rising prices, according to the latest Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll shared with NPR.
The poll also finds that a strong majority of voters want the next Congress to reverse President Trump’s agenda — or act as a check on his power — on policies such as tariffs and trade, health care and immigration.
With less than two weeks until Election Day, voters say they would rather elect a Democrat to Congress than a Republican by a double-digit margin among registered voters (52% to 41%) and likely voters (54% to 42%).
The survey of 2,028 respondents was conducted Oct. 13-19 and has a margin of sampling error of 2.2 percentage points, meaning the results could be about 2.2 points higher or lower.
Trump’s job approval rating is at a near-record high for his second term, with just 34% approving of his performance and 62% disapproving, and 50% strongly disapproving.
G. Elliott Morris, author of the Strength In Numbers newsletter and CEO of the polling firm Wave Polling and Research, said the latest poll explains the current political landscape challenges Republicans face.
“Trump’s ratings have hit new lows on seven of the ten issues we’ve tracked since May 2025, from jobs and trade to immigration and border security, and he’s now underwater on every issue we’ve asked about,” Morris said. “The president’s policies have hurt even Republicans, with voters now more likely to say they trust Democrats to handle immigration and the economy.”
Among adults, prices and inflation are collectively cited by far as the most important problem facing the country today, with 63% of respondents saying it is one of their three most important problems and 39% citing it first. Other major issues include jobs and the economy, health care, elections, democracy and immigration.
Overall, voter sentiment explains why Democrats and Republicans are spending big money in House and Senate races, which extend deep into conservative territory where Trump performed well in 2024.
Americans have become embittered against Trump and the Republicans
Voters chose to give Republicans control of the White House and Congress in the 2024 elections, and at least some of them say they regret their choice. According to the poll, nearly one in ten people who said they voted in the 2024 presidential election regret their choice, including nearly 15% of self-proclaimed Trump voters and 15% who supported a third-party candidate.
In May 2025, the Strength in Numbers/Verasight poll found that voters trusted Republicans more than Democrats on immigration and deportations, by an average of 15 points. Today, they trust Democrats by only a slim margin of one point.
In every measure tracked by the poll, Republicans have lost ground over the past year and a half and hold only a slight advantage on issues of crime, public safety and border security.
When asked which party voters trust to address their top personal issue, Democrats hold a 47-35 advantage, a jump of nearly 10 points since May 2025 and the widest gap measured.
The midterms are a referendum
Many polls, including September’s NPR/PBS News/Marist survey, find that 2026 midterm choices are best viewed in relation to Trump rather than a simple binary vote of support for Democratic or Republican candidates.
Just 25% of respondents said it was more important to elect a Congress that will help Trump pass his agenda, compared to 58% who said it was to elect a Congress to act as a check and balance on Trump.
Two in five voters surveyed said their decision would primarily be a statement against Trump and his agenda, compared to one in five who said it would be a statement of support. For 20% of voters surveyed, their choice would relate to specific issues and candidates in their constituency.
On the issues of tariffs and trade, health care, foreign policy, elections and voting, government spending and social programs, immigration and deportations, and artificial intelligence, a majority of respondents want Congress to reverse course or act as a check on Trump’s positions.
More voters think the Democratic Party cares more about people like them than Republicans, and 20% say neither party does.
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