Midterms 2026, the recap’: the Democrats play moderation, Donald Trump leaves for the campaign

• Portrayed as extremists, Democrats play the moderation card

We have said it enough – here, here, or here – since the start of these recaps of the Midterms campaign: the Republicans are in difficulty in the polls. They have never even been more so than this week. Democrats now have a 92.7% chance of capturing the House of Representatives and a 71.4% chance of winning the Senate, according to estimates from the Silver Bulletin.

To slow down the growing advance of their rivals, the Republicans are therefore responding with a strategy already tested and approved in 2024: portraying the Democrats as extremists who are putting the country in danger. “Communists”, “Marxists”, “laxists”, “woke”… there is no shortage of adjectives to describe candidates coming from the left wing of the Democratic Party or the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).

One of their favorite angles of attack is that of the trans community. Republicans have spent at least $76 million on the issue to date, according to an analysis published this week by the Washington Post. In their spots, Democratic candidates are accused of supporting the participation of “men” (trans women, Editor’s note) in women’s sports competitions, their use of ladies’ toilets or even “sex reassignment surgery for children”. In 2024, Democrats remained silent in the face of these attacks. This time, in the most contested states, where voters must be convinced, the candidates have chosen to respond by displaying their moderation, even if it means alienating the LGBT+ community.

“I voted with the Republicans to keep transgender ideology out of our schools, because parents know what is best for their children,” Marcy Kaptur, Democratic representative from Ohio and candidate for re-election, defended in a recent video. And added: “And boys should not participate in women’s sports.”

In Texas, Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, who could win a seat won by Republicans for thirty years, reversed his past positions: “I am against the participation of trans athletes in women’s sports if it endangers the safety or fairness of the game,” he declared last month.

The choice of moderation also prevails in other areas: in Alaska, the Democratic candidate for the Senate Mary Peltola thus supports the increase in oil production, going against her party. And Amy Acton, who is seeking governor of Ohio, supports requiring voters to show ID to vote, one of Donald Trump’s demands.

Also readBo French, or when Maga excesses risk handing over the keys to Texas oil to the Democrats

Another sign that is quite telling: the Democratic contenders of swing states Or swing districts (the states or districts which switch from one party to another according to the elections) are fleeing Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), the representative of New York and potential presidential candidate, leading figure of the progressive wing of the party. The media Axios reports the example of Sam Forstag, a candidate from Montana who, since his appearance alongside AOC in a meeting at the end of May – very useful support for winning the primaries – has distanced himself. He notably removed any reference to AOC from his campaign site and suggested that he would not invite her back on stage.

Democrats know that to win in the midterm elections, they will not only have to mobilize their base, but also attract enough undecided voters to swing a handful of votes in their favor. However, the image of the Democratic Party remains inglorious in public opinion. According to an NBC poll published on September 20, only 29% of voters have a positive opinion of him, compared to 36% of them about the Republicans.

The Democrats have therefore understood that if they are ahead in the polls, it is mainly because the opposite camp has fallen. Political analyst Charlie Cook said last week that he expected less of a “blue wave” than a “red ebb”. In other words, some Republican voters could stay at home on November 3 without necessarily going so far as to vote Democratic, a party they hate. No wonder, then, that we no longer hear Democratic candidates launching “Defund the police!” (“Cut the police budget!”, one of the slogans of the anti-racist movement Black Lives Matter).

• The race of the week: in Michigan, will the progressive Abdul El-Sayed succeed in convincing the moderates?

This is one of the faces of these Midterms. In the race for the post of senator from Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, a 41-year-old medical graduate of Egyptian origin, dominates by a hair in the polls (48% against 44%) the Republican Mike Rodgers, a faithful of Donald Trump, who benefits from the financial advantage of his party.

Also readUnited States: Abdul El-Sayed, the bet of the new democratic left in Michigan

A fierce critic of Israeli policies and supporter of universal public health insurance (Medicare for all), Abdul El-Sayed campaigned very left-wing during the primaries, during which he faced a candidate from the Democratic establishment. He must now make sure not to scare off moderate voters in a state where a few hundred votes can make the difference. This is the case on the sensitive subject of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. “He wants to represent Palestine. I want to represent Michigan,” Mike Rodgers attacked him in September during the Republican convention in Dallas.

During the primaries, Abdul El-Sayed campaigned with Hasan Piker, a controversial far-left streamer regularly accused of anti-Semitism. He now seeks to distance himself from him, without alienating the large Muslim community of Dearborn, in the suburbs of Detroit. He thus described Hasan Piker’s comments as “stupid” asserting that America had “deserved September 11.”

While he has criticized the Biden administration’s policies regarding the conflict in Gaza, Abdul El-Sayed also recently campaigned with former Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris at a roundtable in Detroit on the maternal health of black women. Objective: to rally the moderate wing of the party, as well as the African-American electorate.

• News of the week: Donald Trump on tour, for better or for worse?

The American president began his major tour of the country this week to help Republican candidates. He is expected this Saturday in Ohio, after visits to Texas and Oklahoma on Thursday, then to Alabama on Friday. Around thirty states, five to seven per week, are on the program between now and November 3. While his popularity rating hovers around only 37%, the billionaire does not budge: his administration is doing an excellent job, but the message is having difficulty getting across. “The only thing we are doing wrong is communicating with the public,” he said in Texas. He therefore believes he is the best possible spokesperson.

Also readMidterms 2026, the recap’: “Pretend I’m on the ballot”, a risky bet for Trump

This is not the opinion of all Republicans, who are starting to panic in the face of the polls. Ken Paxton, the embattled Republican Senate candidate, was unknowingly recorded telling donors that Donald Trump’s Republican convention in Dallas in September had hurt his campaign. Some Republicans simply no longer want to appear alongside him on stage. The fact that Donald Trump begins his tour with very red states (the 77 counties of Oklahoma voted for Donald Trump in each election, for example) has also caused a lot of ink to flow. Would the Republicans feel in danger on their own land?

In parallel with his tour, Donald Trump launched a series of advertising spots, some recycled from his 2024 campaign, financed by federal funds. According to the Washington Post, this money was initially intended to improve security at the border, combat drug trafficking or even erect memorials for members of law enforcement killed in the line of duty. And Democrats and some Republicans are crying scandal and “propaganda.”

• Quote of the week: panic among the Republicans

“This is going to be a tsunami. Total debacle. To those who say we’re going to keep the Senate, I tell them that’s not going to happen. They’re delusional. Get ready for impeachment. Everyone needs a lawyer now.” That’s what a Trump ally told journalist Tara Palmeri during an evening at the Republican convention in Dallas.

• The ad of the week: when the Maga accuse Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders of “anti-white racism”

Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the Republican governor of Arkansas, candidate for re-election, broadcast a spot on Monday that scandalized the Maga sphere. In this thirty-second spot, the former White House spokesperson during Donald Trump’s first term congratulates himself on having imposed employment conditions to fight against social assistance fraud. To illustrate his remarks, a white actor slumped on his sofa gorges himself on chips while playing video games.

Enough to make several opinion influencers, white nationalist tendencies, who cry about “anti-white racism” jump: for them, the fact that the cliché of assistantship is illustrated by a white man does not pass. They would have gladly preferred a “welfare queen“, a derogatory term used by racist circles to describe a black woman, often a single mother, who lives on state aid.

Sean Davis, co-founder of the conservative website The Federalist, rails: “Our government has systematically discriminated against white men for decades now, and now it has the audacity to dishonestly portray young white men as welfare queens.” But the figures for Arkansas are clear: the beneficiaries of Medicaid (health assistance for the most deprived) are overwhelmingly white, according to an analysis by the New York Times.

In summary: to satisfy white nationalists, Sarah Sanders would have had to choose a black actor, and thereby be guilty of racism against blacks. Are you following?