The vote promises to be close and Donald Trump is following it “very closely”: Brazilians began voting this Sunday to choose between left-wing President Lula and his conservative rival Flavio Bolsonaro, a social choice in a polarized country. Encouraged by the American president, the right has reaped recent victories in Latin America. A shift in the region’s leading economic power would be resounding.
From the remote villages of the Amazon to the farmlands of the South and the favelas of big cities, some 160 million voters are called to the polls. Some people vote without enthusiasm. “Nothing ever changes, they just make promises,” said Janaina Oliveira, 45, an administrator living in Rio de Janeiro. “We vote for the least worse,” she adds.
At almost 81 years old, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is seeking a fourth and final non-consecutive term and affirms that Brazil’s sovereignty is at stake in the face of American pressure. He is fighting against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, son of former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, convicted of attempted coup d’état.
Neck to neck
“The people will have to choose between strengthening the democratic regime and barbarism,” said the outgoing president after voting in the state of Sao Paulo (south-east). Wearing his usual Panama hat, he brandished a Brazilian flag in front of journalists.
Leaving his polling station in Rio, son Bolsonaro promised to “liberate the Brazilian people”. “Brazil needs change, Brazil no longer supports so much suffering, so much high taxes, so many women killed, so much political persecution,” he said. Little known until then, it was launched by his father when the latter was sentenced to 27 years in prison for wanting to cling to power after his 2022 defeat against Lula.
The two favorites want to believe in a victory on Sunday, but the polls still show them quite far from 50%. A survey by the Datafolha institute published on Saturday evening gave the outgoing president 45% of voting intentions in the first round, compared to 42% for his rival, a near equality given the margin of error. A possible second round would take place on October 25. A handful of small candidates lean to the right and should rely on Flavio Bolsonaro. The results are expected a few hours after offices close at 5 p.m. (Brasilia time), or 10 p.m. Paris.
Scandals and low blows
The campaign saw more scandals and low blows than discussion on programs. The two camps also referred accusations of embezzlement to each other. Flavio Bolsonaro is the target of an investigation for corruption and money laundering over the financing of a film to glorify Jair Bolsonaro. Lula spent more than 18 months in prison for corruption in 2018-2019, before having his conviction overturned on procedural grounds.
Donald Trump did not support Flavio Bolsonaro but his influence weighed on the campaign. He has drawn customs duties and sanctions against Brazil since the 2025 trial against his ally Jair Bolsonaro.
While large American flags were seen at right-wing meetings, Lula called on the tenant of the White House not to “meddle” in the elections.
