To be found in the show
Despite the explosive situation in the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, the flow of crude oil from the Middle East exceeded its pre-war average on some days in the last week of September, according to Kpler. But between attacks on ships, tensions on supply and high prices at the pump, the recovery remains fragile.
As of October 1, the region’s crude exports reached a seven-day average of 18.5 million barrels per day, compared to 18 million before the war. They exceeded this level four days out of seven at the end of September.
To restore flows, the Gulf countries have found other exit routes. Saudi Arabia ships its oil to Yanbu on the Red Sea; the Emirates has an oil pipeline to Fujairah, on the Gulf of Oman, capable of transporting 1.8 million barrels per day. A second Emirati oil pipeline, estimated at $4 billion, is due to double this capacity in 2027. Cargo transfers between ships complete these routes.
Roads still vulnerable
This recovery remains exposed to attacks. The Houthis have claimed strikes against Saudi oil sites, without confirmation from Riyadh, while at least seven incidents targeting ships have been reported in the region since September 28.
In Iran, no crude loadings were recorded in September according to preliminary ship tracking data. Iran’s oil minister resigned on Sunday, officially for personal reasons, as the country experiences gasoline shortages and long queues at stations.
To increase supply, the G7 announced a new release of 100 million barrels over four months, after the 325 million already placed on the market out of the 400 million promised in March. Motorists have not yet seen the relaxation, neither in France nor in the United States.
