Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in bad shape before the second round on October 25. Given as the favorite by polling institutes, the outgoing president of Brazil is ultimately two points behind after the first round of the presidential election. His main rival, Flavio Bolsonaro, created a surprise on Sunday October 4 by obtaining 47.06% of the votes.
Lula himself recognized an “unexpected” result but said he was confident of winning in twenty days. “The match is about to begin. We are in overtime, and that is where we are going to convince the Brazilian people,” said the 80-year-old head of state, who is seeking a fourth term.
On paper, the 45-year-old right-wing senator seemed an adversary within reach of the historic champion of the left, who tried during the campaign to highlight good growth figures and an unemployment rate reduced to 5.3%. But Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) could have minimized the weariness of Brazilian voters faced with the same ills: a soaring cost of living, endemic household debt, corruption and insecurity – which his opponent promised to eradicate in the manner of the controversial Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele.
“People are simply exhausted. They have the impression that the political class is just always proposing the same thing. Lula will be 81 at the end of the month and seems to be proposing solutions to problems that are already more than 20 years old,” says Felipe Krause, political scientist and former diplomat, director of the Brazilian studies department at the University of Oxford, on France 24, who points to a lack of renewal of political personnel in Brazil.
“The Workers’ Party clearly has a problem of disconnection with its base,” continues the expert. “On the other hand, Flavio Bolsonaro was able to truly address a new and growing middle class, those people who aspire to prosperity, hope to become small entrepreneurs and want less regulation.”
“We can also see the manifestation of a rejection of the themes defended by the left in a context of progression of evangelicals”, deciphers Armellle Enders, professor of contemporary history at the University of Paris 8, director of the laboratory of the French Institute of Geopolitics. “For evangelicals, individualism takes precedence and all social policy is seen as welfare. This is not only a rejection of Lula, it is also a rejection of moderate liberalism or political centrism in the French sense of the term.”
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Cover image: © France 24
A “quasi-mafia” clan
Because beyond the success recorded in the presidential election, the “Bolsonaro” brand was a hit in the general elections, carried by a conservative tidal wave. Thus, the former president’s wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, was elected to the Senate, as was his second son, Carlos Bolsonaro. His party, the Liberal Party (PL), alone won 19 seats in the Senate out of the 54 available, and has 28 out of 81 in total.
A push from the right which should favor the adoption of an amnesty law in favor of Jair Bolsonaro. Convicted of attempted coup d’état, the ex-president is serving a 27-year prison sentence at home for having been the head of a “criminal organization” which conspired to ensure his “authoritarian maintenance in power” after his defeat by Lula in 2022.
“It’s a small, almost mafia-like clan that has been infiltrated in politics for 30 years,” estimates Armelle Enders, who also cites the case of Eduardo Bolsonaro. Based in the United States, this former deputy had lobbied Donald Trump for Washington to launch a trade war against Brasilia in the hope of influencing his father’s trial before the Brazilian Supreme Court.
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Suspicions of interference from the United States also loomed during the campaign. An investigation has just been opened in Brazil after revelations from the Guardian on the existence of funding from Washington of a million dollars intended to destabilize the Supreme Court.
At the level of governors, the Bolsonaro clan will also be able to count on Tarcisio de Freitas, elected in the first round in the State of Sao Paulo, or even on the magistrate Sergio Moro. This judge, who had sentenced Lula to prison for corruption in the first instance, took charge of the state of Parana, in the south of the country.
“‘Bolsonarism’ is now much more than just a family affair. There is a solid base of socially conservative people, opposed to the Workers’ Party and driven by a strong feeling in favor of the market,” notes Felipe Krause.
Bolsonaro in (very) favorable ballot
If the name Bolsonaro seems to be popular with voters, the mobilization of the conservative camp could also be explained by the scandal caused during the campaign by the Daniel Vorcaro affair, a banker suspected of having distributed bribes to politicians and judges of the Supreme Court.
Directly implicated, Flavio Bolsonaro denies any irregularity and on the contrary mentions the name of judge Alexandre de Moraes, mentioned in the file. Mainly responsible for the conviction of Jair Bolsonaro in 2025, this magistrate is considered the number one enemy of the supporters of the ex-far-right head of state.
“The crisis within the Supreme Court has certainly caused this wave of disengagement. However, many judges are involved in this financial scandal, at least for ethical issues. This affair has undoubtedly caused an extremely strong stiffening of the right-wing electorate”, analyzes Armelle Enders.
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After his victory in the first round, Flavio Bolsonaro finds himself in a position of strength while the postponement of votes should work in his favor. The senator from Rio de Janeiro could garner the support of voters from the handful of small candidates, most of them on the right, who were present in the first round.
“Let’s not forget that 21% of voters abstained during this first round. It will therefore really be a question of mobilizing them and Bolsonaro has the advantage on this point. Flavio Bolsonaro’s tone is much more consensual than that of his father, which should allow him to rally more voters to his cause for the second round”, assures Felipe Krause.
“It is highly unlikely that Lula will succeed in winning. Even in the event of victory, he would in any case face a completely locked Congress,” explains Armelle Enders. “We must understand that this is not an alternation within the same system. We are here at a historic turning point, a seesaw” for the young Brazilian democracy.
