Fewer people are flying, but airlines aren’t worried

Fewer people are flying this year, but with airfares so high and rising, airline executives say that’s just fine.

The number of people screened at U.S. checkpoints is on track to see its first annual decline since 2020. Major U.S. carriers have said securing higher fares is more important than completely filling their planes or carrying record numbers of travelers.

“We actively prioritize yield over occupancy factor and we’re really pleased with what we’re seeing. It fits perfectly with the premium investments we’re making.” American airlines said Nat Pieper, chief commercial officer, during the company’s earnings call Thursday.

American’s load factor, which measures how full planes are, fell to 83.4% in the third quarter, compared to 86% in the same quarter of 2025.

Airfare prices have soared as airlines grapple with soaring prices for jet fuel, their biggest expense after labor, and pass much of those costs on to customers.

In September, rates rose more than 22% from a year earlier, according to the latest inflation data. Fare tracker Hopper said it expects this holiday season to bring the most expensive ticket prices in years.

The average Southwest Airlines the rate in the third quarter, for example, was $231.69, an increase of almost $50 from the previous year. That doesn’t include Southwest’s new fees, like its additional fees for checked bags or a seat closer to the front of the plane.

The airline’s number of paying passengers, however, fell 3.2% from last year, to around 33.5 million people.

Still, fares and passenger numbers exceeded Southwest’s expectations.

“Passenger fares exceeded our forecast by about $3 and most importantly, passenger volume also exceeded our expectations,” Southwest CEO Bob Jordan said on an earnings conference call Thursday.

Since April — when airlines began seriously warning that their profits would be hit by rising jet fuel — through Thursday, about 9.3 million fewer people were screened at airport checkpoints compared to the same period in 2025, according to the Transportation Security Administration. Although this figure is down less than 2% from last year, it follows years of growth.

As jet fuel prices have more than doubled from last year — as seen in U.S. Gulf Coast spot prices of $4.63 per gallon, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration — airlines have focused on recouping as much of the fuel surge as possible.

Even despite some declines, airline executives said on their earnings calls that travel demand was robust overall, particularly for profitable premium cabins like business class.

And not all carriers are experiencing a decline. United Airlines In the third quarter, the company carried 2.4% more passengers than a year ago and said its unit revenue rose 16%, the largest increase since the pandemic.

“I’ve been pleasantly surprised by the industry’s ability this year to increase yields and pass on a lot of the higher fuel prices,” CEO Scott Kirby said during the company’s earnings conference call Wednesday. “It is therefore possible that airlines will continue to focus on yields at the expense of load factor and this alone could see us achieve double-digit margins next year.”

Most airlines expect fuel costs to continue to rise, but executives say they are confident in their pricing power.

United, for example, said it expects to pay an average of $4.80 per gallon for fuel in the fourth quarter, compared to an average of $3.90 per gallon in the third.

American, United, Delta Airlines and Southwest all cut their 2026 earnings forecasts this month when they reported earnings. The American is the only one of the four to expect to post a loss this year.

American and others have also scaled back their growth plans or warned that the industry could roll back capacity expansion goals, which could keep rates high. Reduced capacity can make reservable seats scarcer, which will drive prices up even more if demand continues.

Carriers said demand was particularly strong for premium seats, which cost hundreds or even thousands of dollars more than coach tickets.

Smaller airlines are expected to report results in the coming weeks, including Border Airlines And Allegiant Airtraditionally focus on the most price-sensitive customers, which could show whether or not these travelers are opting out.

A factor that could also affect air travel is the demise of Spirit Airlines, which ceased operations in early May.

“Some of its customers have likely stopped flying,” Bank of America said in a research note Thursday.