Call it “avoidance” electionwith many on each side more motivated to try to prevent or stop things as they go earn.
In a context of persistent concern regarding inflation and the economythe Democrats maintain their lead in their attempt to obtain a Majority in the House. They are currently on pace to pick up 229 seats according to our CBS News House estimation model, which translates voters’ congressional preferences into seats.
The potential range of outcomes could reach as high as 230 in our model, but Republicans also still have a very narrow path to holding the majority.
Although this Democratic lead has been sustainable in recent weeks, it has not widened either.
In other words, there is no growing wave, at least not yet.
On the contrary, voters who are still undecided or uncertain tend to profile themselves as more Republican.
Their decision to run is perhaps the key question in 2026.
Regardless, voters describe a dynamic in which they are more motivated to oppose things they think might happen. For example:
Many think gas prices will fall up if the Republicans win, than if the Democrats win.
(Though they don’t think Democrats will lower gas prices.)
Most voters don’t think Democrats have a plan and won’t make people better off financially either… But more voters think they’ll be worse off if Republicans win.
The president remains a central element. That would be a high number of people voting to support or oppose a president in the midterms if that sentiment persists through Election Day.
Most Democratic voters are trying to oppose President Trump or Republicans, even more than helping Democrats.
(Whether or not this rationale limits Democratic gains is another key question.)
But it motivates most Republicans, especially MAGA.
Part of that lead is attributed to the fact that more Democrats said they would definitely vote or had already voted early.
But it’s not over: voters who describe themselves as only “probably” or “maybe” voting are more Republican. If they become motivated, everything can change.
So what happens if either side wins?
Few voters believe gas prices will fall, regardless of who wins.
But the Republican Party is now relatively more associated in voters’ minds with rising gas prices: more of them think they will rise if the Republicans win than if the Democrats do.
Most voters don’t think their financial situation will be better no matter who wins. This cynicism permeates the electorate.
But as a choice, relatively more of them think they will do better with Democrats.
Most voters believe there will be more corruption in government if Republicans maintain control of Congress.
Both Democrats and Republicans – with roughly similar majorities – view government corruption as a determining factor in their votes.
The Trump factor: a motivating factor for both camps, but even more so for Democrats
Mr. Trump looms large in the midterms, particularly for Democrats. More than seven in 10 people voting for Democrats say their vote for Congress is to oppose him.
Mr. Trump is also a factor for those who support Republicans. Most say their vote is to support him, but to a lesser extent than Democrats are voting against him.
For most of those who support the Democrats, their motivation lies more in stop Mr. Trump and the GOP’s policies rather than advancing Democrats’ own policies.
Here’s how opposition to either party is a motivating force this year.
Neither Democrats nor Republicans are seen by a majority of voters as having a clear plan, even if they take control of Congress.
Four in 10 voters supporting Democrats don’t believe the party has a clear plan if they win. They say opposition to Mr. Trump is their main motivation.
Meanwhile, four in ten Republicans say their vote is not about the president. They are less likely to consider themselves MAGA and tend to simply “somewhat” rather than “strongly” approve of Mr. Trump. But a large majority of them have a unfavorable point of view of the Democratic Party – they therefore remain in the Republican camp.
Other problems
Many voters believe that a victory for the other side poses a threat to their way of life. Democrats believe a Republican victory would pose a threat to theirs.
MAGA Republicans in particular, more than non-MAGAs, believe Democrats would pose a threat.
Although this issue ranks behind others as a factor in voters’ decisions, Republicans lead Democrats in those who consider transgender issues a major factor in their vote.
Immigration
A third of voters believe that the Democratic Party puts the interests of recent immigrants ahead of those of American citizens, and voters who share this view support Republicans in large numbers.
(Another third think the Democratic Party prioritizes both groups, and these voters support Democrats.)
Trump and finances
Americans’ overall assessment of the economy continues to be negative, as it has been for years. They have even dropped a little now, to the level where they were last spring.
And voters are likely to believe the president’s policies have made their financial situation worse.
The economy and inflation remain the main concerns. Those who view inflation as a very important issue mostly support Democrats, as do those who believe prices have been difficult or a hardship.
In this context, voters express broader concern about the financial interests they believe the president prioritizes.
Most feel that he prioritizes his own financial interests and those of his family over those of the country’s people. And those who share this view support Democrats.
Most Republicans believe that Mr. Trump prioritizes the financial interests of the country’s residents over his own.
Trump on the Trail: Is He Helping or Harming?
The president’s numerous appearances on the campaign trail may help rally the base behind Republican candidates, but those events may not have as much impact on the rest of the party.
Most MAGA Republicans say that when they see Trump campaigning for political candidates, it makes them more likely to vote for Republicans.
For many non-MAGA Republicans, these campaign events don’t do that.
The voting process
Most voters express at least some confidence in their own local and county election administration to conduct the election process, including determining eligibility and correctly counting ballots.
In turn, most tend to express confidence that their own vote will be recorded and counted accurately in this election.
On these two measures, more Democrats than Republicans are very confident.
Republicans are much more likely to believe that illegal non-citizen voting occurs in federal elections.
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted among a nationally representative sample of 2,355 U.S. adults surveyed between October 21 and 23, 2026. The sample was weighted to be nationally representative of adults based on gender, age, race and education, based on the U.S. Census of the American Community and Current Population Survey, as well as the presidential vote of 2024. The margin of error for the total sample is ± 2.6 points, it is ± 2.9 points for the sample of registered voters and ± 3.0 points for likely voters.
The estimated number of Republican and Democratic seats comes from a statistical model developed by CBS News and YouGov that includes data from this poll, past votes and other district-level characteristics, demographics and historical patterns. These estimates are subject to statistical errors. We simulate many elections, calibrating the error to include historical polling accuracy, to obtain a range of seat estimates. We report 95% confidence intervals from the simulations. These estimates describe which party is in the lead today and may change as additional data is collected closer to the election.
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