US forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new, potentially major, military operations against Iran “within 96 hours of receipt” of an order from President Donald Trump, according to two US officials.
Sufficient forces are now deployed in the region to carry out potential attacks, the sources said. The scope of new U.S. military operations would likely go beyond efforts to simply “mow the lawn” or maintain the status quo by striking Iranian radars, launchers and other assets that can be quickly replenished – as has been the case since Trump ended full combat operations earlier this year, the sources added.
“It will take a big effort,” one of the officials told CNN. That view has been echoed by other current and former U.S. officials familiar with internal discussions about military planning — some of whom say the question is when, not if, Trump will give the order to leave. They think it could come any time before the end of the year, but most likely after the US midterm elections.
Iranian forces are now more familiar with US tactics and therefore it would be more difficult for the US military to effectively destroy all potential targets. However, leaders at US Central Command and the Pentagon have developed a wide-ranging target list, which includes Iranian energy infrastructure, military sites and nuclear facilities.
Officials say Trump has not yet decided what he will do after the midterm elections, but appears intent on ordering major action. But officials also warn that Trump has in the past appeared to lean in favor of certain actions only to back down at the last moment.
The White House declined to comment.
A senior Pentagon official told CNN in a statement: “The Department is a planning organization, and its job is to develop and execute military options ordered by the President. »
Recent U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that Iran and the Houthi rebels are taking the possibility of further attacks from the United States and potentially Israel very seriously, according to two other sources familiar with the matter.
If the United States and Israel launch new military operations against Iran, Tehran and the Houthis will likely retaliate immediately by targeting U.S. personnel and facilities in the region — and potentially beyond, the sources familiar with these recent U.S. intelligence assessments said.
An unclassified Oct. 23 memo from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio says U.S. intelligence has found that “Iran has significantly increased its efforts to target U.S. personnel” and that conspiracy efforts “have reached advanced stages in both the Middle East and some other countries,” CNN previously reported.
U.S. intelligence officials believe Iran and the Houthis are unlikely to carry out preemptive attacks against U.S. personnel or Israel at this point, but would not hesitate to respond if Iran were targeted first by U.S. or Israeli forces, noted one of the sources familiar with the latest U.S. intelligence assessments.
But the regional threat posed by Iran and the Houthis is one reason why the United States is expected to continue quietly withdrawing staff from its Middle East embassies in the coming days, the source said.
While the US embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, is the only US diplomatic facility in the region ordered to leave, one of the sources told CNN that others are expected to receive similar directives and that those that do not will be reduced under a staff cap.
Additionally, according to a U.S. official, non-essential U.S. military personnel scheduled to be deployed to the Middle East as part of the next troop rotation have been informed that they will no longer be sent, highlighting the possibility of imminent regional escalation.
Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of CENTCOM, visited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday as the U.S. military maintains its blockade on Iranian ports and aids maritime traffic through the critical waterway.
Cooper “observed the current operating environment” as he flew over the strait in a helicopter, CENTCOM said, adding that he encountered military personnel who cleared the waterway of Iranian mines.
“We continue to stand with our partners in the Gulf and the shipping industry,” Cooper said in a press release. “This visit underlines our strong commitment to maintaining freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.”
Despite the increase in the number of tankers transiting the strait, oil prices remain high, in part because of the threat of possible Iranian attacks. A US official has acknowledged that the status quo around the strait is “untenable” in the long term and that, barring a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough, is one reason Trump may turn to military action – despite questions over whether the White House has a broader strategy to end the conflict.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been pushing to carry out new attacks on Iran, but U.S. officials have asked that he wait until the Trump administration is ready to carry out joint operations, according to two U.S. officials and an Israeli security source.
“Netanyahu really wanted and tried to convince Trump of a joint attack in Iran before the election, and Trump did not give the green light,” an Israeli security source told CNN.
One of the reasons Trump refused was that Israeli army chief of staff Eyal Zamir told US General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, that doing so would harm Israel’s elections and lead to their postponement, the Israeli security source added.
Israel was preparing for the possibility of launching new attacks on Iran over the past week and had been pressuring U.S. officials to support and complement the new strikes, a third source briefed on the matter told CNN. But senior US officials – including Trump – have asked Israel not to intervene, instead signaling that the two countries would soon launch joint operations.
Israel appears to have delayed plans for additional strikes for the immediate future, but is preparing for possible joint operations with the United States – likely after the US midterm elections, all sources said.
Israel appears to be agreeing to delay further strikes against Iran, in part because it needs American support for its missile defense, the source briefed on the matter added. Iran and the Houthis would likely retaliate if attacked, and Israel’s defensive munitions have been strained during the war.
Recent U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that Netanyahu and his allies still lack a clear strategic objective beyond demonstrating some sort of “progress” and continuing to degrade the Iranian regime, one of the sources familiar with the reports added.
Netanyahu said this week in a speech at an IDF graduation ceremony that his directive to the IDF, Mossad and other security branches was to overthrow the Iranian regime.
“The plans are ready, they are waiting for Trump’s approval, perhaps after the midterm elections,” the same source told CNN.
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