In figures: Families who heat with oil could pay about 50% more this winter than last winter, according to estimates from the National Energy Assistance Director Association (NEADA), up from its projection of 31.3% in mid-September.
- The average cost of heating a home with oil is expected to increase by about $878, to more than $2,600 this winter.
- For comparison, the Energy Information Administration’s Winter Fuels Outlook released Tuesday projects that electricity bills will increase 4% nationally, while natural gas bills will decrease 9% and propane costs will decrease 3%. The EIA expects a smaller increase in heating oil than NEADA, projecting a 21% increase in household spending.
Households in the North-East the pain is most acute: About 82% of heating oil is consumed in the region, where some states lack robust natural gas pipelines, according to NEADA data.
- Only 3% of U.S. households use fuel oil as their primary heat source, compared with about 45% who use natural gas and 43% who use electricity, according to the EIA report.
The big picture: Fuel oil prices are rising as global oil markets collapse due to wars in Iran and Ukraine and refinery activity declines.
- “These trends really reflect the worst-case scenario of this war, and they’re going to feel it this winter, and that’s unfortunate,” Mark Wolfe, executive director of NEADA, told Axios.
What they say: Because of the cost, some families will cut back on food or medications, borrow from payday lenders or turn down the heat to unsafe levels to cover their heating bills, Wolfe says.
- “In the case of low-income families, states sometimes move money around to help them, but they miss out on it.“ » said Wolfe.
Between the lines: States can spend more money on heating assistance, but they have fewer tools to protect oil customers than households served by regulated gas and electric utilities, Wolfe says.
- States may require utilities to offer rebates, affordable programs or winter shutoff protections, but these measures generally do not apply to independent heating oil dealers.
Zoom: Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey declared a state of energy emergency Monday due to rising winter energy costs, releasing nearly $150 million in aid and expanding aid to middle-class households who heat with oil.
- Rhode Island also declared an energy affordability emergency and dedicated $28 million in reserves for winter electricity bill relief, and Maine Gov. Janet Mills announced $40 million in electricity reductions automatically applied to low-income residents.
Zoom out: The energy affordability crisis is made worse by the Trump administration’s attempts to dismantle the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, or LIHEAP.
- The administration laid off federal LIHEAP staff at the Department of Health and Human Services in April 2025 and proposed defunding the program.
- LIHEAP is still operating, but state administrators are operating without dedicated federal staff.
- The White House referred Axios to HHS, which said it “will meet its responsibilities for funding made available by Congress” and that “HHS has the staff and capacity to distribute these funds in a timely manner.”
The bottom line: Winter is coming, and Americans need to prepare for both the cold – and the prices.
Go further: how to save money on your electricity bill this winter
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