At the intersection of an ongoing affordability crisis and the midterm election campaign, the Trump administration’s efforts to reduce beef prices appear to be failing.
President Donald Trump signed a proclamation in August to temporarily increase the amount of beef in the United States by importing 300,000 tons of lean beef trimmings into the country at a reduced duty rate. Imports were scheduled over 90 days, from September to November.
“This deal will lower prices for Americans while still allowing our great American beef herd to grow again,” Trump wrote on Truth Social in announcing the policy.
But as of Oct. 19, the United States had imported just 59,423 tons of beef, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data, or just 20% of the goal. And ground beef cost an average of $6.79 a pound in September, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, down from $6.92 in August but still above $6.32 a year ago.
This 7% year-over-year increase in beef, driven by continued high demand as well as declining herd sizes, far outpaced the 2.5% to 2.9% rise in overall U.S. food prices, which has become representative of America’s affordability problems. Trump has identified beef prices as a key issue to address in the second half of his term, as he targets his policies to the generally loyal Republican farmer base.
“This has really become unacceptable to voters,” Trump said last month. “And we need to get elected, because if we don’t get elected, your ranchers and farmers are going to be in big trouble.”
But farmers and agricultural economists doubt that 300,000 tonnes of imported beef will lead to price cuts, arguing that the initiative is at best ineffective and, at worst, represents a financial strain in an already difficult time for the industry.
“The simple hypothesis was that if we could just increase the supply of beef in the United States, that should drive prices down,” said Derrell Peel, an agribusiness professor specializing in livestock at Oklahoma State University. Fortune. “Unfortunately, the beef industry is much more complex than that. »
The White House did not immediately respond. Fortunerequest for comment.
Why Trump’s Efforts to Reduce Beef Costs Are Failing
Part of the reason Americans don’t see a noticeable difference in beef costs is because the type of beef shipped from overseas is generally not available on retailer shelves, Peel noted. Lean beef trimmings are often combined with fatty trimmings produced from cattle in U.S. feedlots. This beef combination is typically used in fast food restaurants, not grocery stores where many American consumers seek relief.
The use of these lean trimmings in addition to domestic fatty trimmings also means that the demand for this type of beef is already modulated. The beef industry is able to import lean trimmings to meet demand, even going so far as to absorb tariffs to do so, according to Peel, and therefore an influx of lower cost offerings does not address the underlying retail cost issue.
“When you remove tariffs, you make it cheaper, but you don’t necessarily increase demand because we only have a limited amount of it,” Peel said. “We were getting as much as we wanted.”
Additionally, Brazil and Argentina, which account for much of the beef imported by the United States, have their own supply issues due to low beef inventories.
Glynn Tonsor, a professor of agricultural economics at Kansas State University, argued that if Trump really wanted to lower beef prices, the best way to do that would be to not interfere with prices in the first place, letting them rise.
“If you erode demand for beef, you will erode prices,” he said. Fortune.
Demand for beef has remained high even as prices have soared, increasing 5.9% in the first six months of 2026 compared to the same period a year ago. Tonsor attributes the price rise to demand, not small herds of cattle. Herd sizes have been declining for 60 years, he noted, making it a predictable factor for the industry and therefore only partly responsible for the rise in beef prices.
If prices remain high, this will effectively destroy demand and eventually drive prices down. But it would also slow imports, instead of increasing them, Tonsor said, meaning it would not be necessary or reasonable to expect 300,000 tons of beef to enter the country.
The conflict between American farmers and Trump
Farmers are virtually uninterested in intervention that would lower beef prices. American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall called on Trump to reverse the policy in a statement last month, arguing that imports would depress livestock prices and could cost ranchers $300 to $400 per head.
“Simply put, the plan jeopardized a fragile recovery in the beef industry while failing to benefit consumers,” Duvall said.
What keeps farmers from being even more upset about Trump’s import policy is its lack of effectiveness, Peel noted. If there were more imports, livestock prices would decrease, but this slight increase has not had a major impact on the industry.
Instead, farmers are very upset about the president’s interference in an industry that has always favored the free market, Peel explained.
“Nothing is simple here,” he said. “There are no simple answers when it comes to everything you might want to do policy-wise to influence this market.”
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