Washington, DC, October 26, 2026 – An Ipsos analysis of the October Reuters/Ipsos Core Political survey conducted October 22-26 finds that the Democratic Party holds a 9-point advantage over the Republican Party among likely voters in the 2026 generic congressional runoff. Overall, 53% of likely voters say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate in their district, compared to 44% who say they would vote for or lean toward the Republican candidate.
The election comes amid growing public frustration with the Trump administration on economic issues. Among all Americans, only 25% approve of President Donald Trump’s handling of the U.S. economy, while only 20% approve of his handling of the cost of living. The president’s overall approval rating remains near an all-time low for his presidency, with just 32% saying they are in favor.
As the administration’s ratings have deteriorated, the Democratic Party has gained ground, seen as better able to manage the American economy (34% prefer the Democratic Party, 28% the Republican Party). This Democratic advantage is a shift from historical patterns and represents a major shift in public assessments since January 2025, when the Republican Party led the economy by 17 points.
In recent months, signs of weakening support for the president have become visible among the Republican base. In the current survey, 62% of Republicans approve of the president’s handling of the economy, and only 48% approve of his handling of the cost of living. Republicans are now more likely to say they approve of his job performance “somewhat” (42%) rather than “strongly” (34%) — a change from the start of Trump’s second term.
As has been the case throughout the fall, Democrats continue to express greater enthusiasm than Republicans about voting in this fall’s midterm elections.
Click here to view the study summary.
About the study
This Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted October 22-26, 2026 by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,679 adults from the general population aged 18 or older.
The study was conducted in English. The data was weighted for gender by age, race and ethnicity, census region, metropolitan status, education, household income, 2024 vote choice, and political party identification. Criteria for identifying political parties come from the 2026 NPORS Annual Survey. Demographic benchmarks come from the March 2026 supplement of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS).
- Gender (male, female) by age (18-29, 30-44, 45-59 and 60+)
- Hispanic race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, other, non-Hispanic, Hispanic, 2 or more races, non-Hispanic)
- Education (less than high school, high school, college, bachelor’s degree, master’s degree or higher)
- Census region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
- Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
- Household income (less than $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
- 2024 voting choices (Trump, Harris, another candidate, did not vote)
- Political Party ID (Democrat, Lean Democrat, Republican, Lean Republican, Independent/Something Else)
The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire adult sample. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.03. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on subsamples. In our results report, percentage points are rounded to the nearest whole number. Therefore, the percentages in a given column of the table may add up to slightly more or less than 100%. In questions that allow multiple answers, the column total may be significantly greater than 100%, depending on the number of different answers offered by each respondent.
The likely weight of voters supports estimates of the likely population of voters in the 2026 midterms across the country. The weight is applied to respondents registered on the electoral roll and who express the intention to vote (or have already voted) in the midterm elections. The likely voter weight aligns this set of respondents with the likely voter targets from the L2 National Registered Voter File and the 2022 Current Population Survey Voting and Registration Supplement. The set of weight variables includes age, gender, region, race/ethnicity, education, and county voting history (2016, 2020, 2024).
For further information on this press release, please contact:
Alex Tyson
Senior Vice President, United States
Public Affairs
(email protected)
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