Dan Ives eyes Tesla-SpaceX merger at $500 per share – Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX)

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) could be worth more than $500 per share in a possible merger with Space Exploration Technology Company. (NASDAQ: SPCX), according to Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives & Co. Ives puts the chances of a deal by the end of 2027 at 80% to 90%.

His thesis revolves around a central question: How much should Tesla shareholders receive for the company’s ambitions in artificial intelligence, autonomous driving and robotics?

Why Ives sees a $500 offer

In an October 26 research note, Ives argued that a combination would provide autonomy and Optimus robotics companies as well as SpaceX’s IT infrastructure, chip design capabilities and capital.

Its $500 per share valuation attributes about $165 to Tesla’s auto business and $335 to Autonomy and Optimus. For Ives, this reflects the potential value of companies that have not yet reached full commercial scale.

The distinction is important because Ives believes Tesla shareholders would resist a transaction that values ​​these future opportunities at too low a price. A transaction below $500 per share would effectively transfer some of Tesla’s upside potential to SpaceX at a discounted price, he said.

Tesla already has a $2 billion stake in SpaceX, according to Ives’ memo. He also sees opportunities for companies to collaborate on software, chip design, robotics, connectivity and Terafab, the planned AI chip manufacturing project.

Merger not a done deal

Elon Musk confirmed during the third quarter earnings conference call that Tesla and SpaceX have formed special committees of independent directors to consider a possible combination. Musk withdrew from discussions due to his role at both companies.

Musk, however, cautioned against viewing a merger as inevitable. No terms were agreed and he said Tesla would need approval from holders of 50% of all outstanding shares, not just a majority of votes cast.

This requirement creates a significant barrier. Even if boards see strategic benefits, Tesla shareholders must decide whether the proposed terms adequately reflect the value of the electric vehicle industry and its long-term AI ambitions. Tesla’s latest SEC filing also states that there is no guarantee that a transaction will be completed.

What Tesla Investors Should Watch For

Ives’ 80-90% probability is his prediction, not a company commitment. The next key developments are whether independent committees agree on terms, how companies evaluate Tesla’s autonomy and robotics businesses, and whether the proposed exchange ratio can gain shareholder approval.

For investors, the $500 figure is less of a guaranteed destination than a measure of the premium Ives believes Tesla shareholders would need. Until a deal takes shape, the central question remains whether the strategic benefits of combining the companies can be translated into terms that both parties – and Tesla shareholders – will agree to.

TSLA Price Action: Tesla shares were up 6.08% at $394.86 at press time Monday, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

Photo: Paulm1993 / Shutterstock – ek