TEL AVIV, Israel — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition is nearly tied with Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc in Tuesday’s historic election — but both fall short of a 61-seat majority, according to Israeli exit polls.
Why it’s important: Political stalemate is the most likely outcome of the election, with Netanyahu weakened but neither side having a clear path to forming a coalition government.
- Arab parties are poised to win 18-19 seats, which would constitute an unprecedented electoral success.
- Although, in theory, the Eisenkot bloc could attempt to establish a minority government supported by the two Arab parties, this scenario seems unlikely.
The numbers: Eisenkot’s bloc emerged with a slight lead in early exit polls, but Netanyahu’s coalition narrowed the gap as the night wore on.
- Netanyahu’s Likud party is expected to win 27 seats to Eisenkot’s Yashar party’s 21 seats.
State of play: A close result could leave the country in a state of uncertainty, with Netanyahu likely remaining interim prime minister as head of the executive branch and the Eisenkot-led opposition controlling the Knesset.
- This scenario could continue until new elections are held in April.
- The two sides could try to break the impasse by forming a unity government between Netanyahu and Eisenkot. But such a scenario is also unlikely given that no opposition party will agree to sit in a Netanyahu-led government.
What they say: Eisenkot claimed victory in a speech delivered after midnight Israeli time. He said that if Netanyahu was a “decent leader,” he would leave the political scene once the public voted for change.
- During his speech, Eisenkot hinted at the possibility of the prime minister launching military action before a new government is formed. “Netanyahu: Don’t you dare use Israel’s security for your political needs,” Eisenkot said.
- He stressed that Israel Defense Forces commanders and security and intelligence chiefs must not forget that Netanyahu now leads an interim government.
- Eisenkot also said that the government he intends to form will be based on three principles: Israel as a Jewish and democratic state; military and national service for all; and the dismantling of Hamas.
After 3 a.m. Israeli time, Netanyahu took the stage and also claimed victory.
- “We are still awaiting the official election results. Likud is the largest party in Israel. The right-wing bloc has a clear and decisive majority among Zionist opinion and among the Jewish population as a whole,” he said.
- Netanyahu did not raise the possibility of a unity government with Eisenkot, but instead called for “a strong right-wing Jewish national government.”
- “We must not endanger Israel by forming a government that relies on anti-Zionist Arab parties,” he said, referring to Eisenkot’s only option for forming a government.
- Netanyahu added that “Iran is weaker than ever and Israel is stronger than ever.” As long as the Iranian regime exists, he said, it will try to destroy Israel. “Together with our wonderful friend President Trump, we have the power to eliminate the threat once and for all.”
Driving the news: The exit poll results came after voters flocked to polling stations throughout the day, with turnout reaching a three-decade high. It was the culmination of a campaign that each side had warned would lead to catastrophe if the other side won.
What we’re looking at: Vote counting extended into the early hours of Wednesday morning in Israel and could continue for several days.
Go further: Israeli participation reaches highest level in three decades
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