Driving the news: The private poll, commissioned by a Republican group and obtained by Axios, finds Acton leading Ramaswamy by eight points – up from a two-point lead in the same poll earlier this month, before the ad began circulating on October 19.
- The ad “has a significant effect on the gubernatorial race,” a memo attached to the poll said.
Catch up quickly: The ad at the center of the controversy features Donna Arthur, Acton’s ex-mother, who accuses her daughter of lying about her childhood and urges Ohioans not to vote for her.
- Acton said she was sexually assaulted by her stepfather when she was 12 and her mother sided with her attacker. The stepfather was accused of sexual assault but fled to Pennsylvania, where he died in 2004 while on the run.
- Acton and his brother were removed from their mother’s care. Acton said she hadn’t seen her mother since 1978.
Zoom out: As Axios first reported, Ramaswamy’s campaign treated the ad as a turning point in the campaign for governor, committing $4 million to air the ad statewide despite warnings from other Republicans that it could backfire.
- Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R), who worked closely with Acton when she was state health director, said the ad’s release was wrong and urged Ramaswamy to remove it.
- But President Trump and Vice President Vance supported Ramaswamy. Vance told bipartisan critics of the ad to “stop whining.”
The plot: The new poll of Republicans indicates that the ad was indeed a game-changer – but not the type of campaign Ramaswamy was hoping for.
- A note attached to the survey indicates that 86% of the 800 respondents said they had seen, read or heard something about the ad.
- By a 2-to-1 ratio, those who said they knew him said it made them more likely to vote for Acton.
Between the lines: National Republican activists fear that backlash against Ramaswamy following the ad could also hurt Ohio U.S. Sen. Jon Husted’s re-election bid in a state that could play a key role in determining control of the Senate.
- Husted said he would not have aired the ad.
- “Vivek’s ad put the entire Republican ticket on defense. He better hope Ohio doesn’t decide the Senate majority,” said a Republican Party operative who has been briefed on polling in the race.
The commercial was filmed months agosaid a source close to the matter, but there was internal resistance to its operation – with one huge exception.
- “It’s the candidate who is pushing,” said a source close to the campaign.
- The ad was initially posted online because the campaign was testing its effectiveness. The ad was sent to respondents to watch on their computers and smartphones to rate them, according to the source.
- “It wasn’t planned. But Vivek got what he wanted,” according to the source. “I probably wouldn’t have done it.”
Yes, but: A separate Suffolk University poll showed a narrower deficit for Ramaswamy – four points, an improvement on Suffolk’s previous results in late September, which found Acton up nine points.
The other side: Ramaswamy defended the ad, arguing that Acton misrepresented his past and avoided addressing the substantive issues facing Ohio voters.
What they say: A representative for the Ramaswamy campaign declined to comment.
What’s next: Trump is expected to campaign in Chillicothe, Ohio, with Ramaswamy and Husted on Wednesday evening.
Axios’ Marc Caputo contributed reporting.
The Republican group’s internal survey of 800 likely Ohio voters was conducted Oct. 23-26 and found that Ramaswamy’s support rose from 45 percent earlier this month to 42 percent, while Acton’s rose from 47 percent to 50 percent. The survey had a margin of error for each candidate’s result of +/- 3.46 percentage points.
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