A worker holds I Voted Today stickers during early voting October 14, 2026 in Des Moines, Iowa.
Charlie Neibergall/Getty Images
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Charlie Neibergall/Getty Images
In the final week of the 2026 midterm elections, ad spending data suggests the main battle is less about stopping a Democratic surge in the House and more about determining its size.
An NPR analysis finds that the final House competitive landscape is vast, including 70 districts where both parties are investing at least six figures per district in their final days of messaging.
This includes more than $10 million each in districts in Michigan, North Carolina, New York and Florida; seven-figure ad buys in deep-red communities in Tennessee, Oklahoma and Arkansas and last-minute resources in districts where gerrymandering by Republicans could backfire.
In a mid-term environment that disadvantages the ruling party, the Republicans’ narrow advantage (218-214) in the House appears almost certain to give way to Democratic control. The Cook Political Report’s latest assessments find that Democrats are favored in 220 seats, 17 are listed as “toss-ups” and 30 others are potentially competitive but lean toward the GOP.
Competitive races on paper
Most of the seats that saw narrow margins in the 2024 presidential election cycle shifted Democrats’ path, particularly in the 10 districts that voted for one party’s presidential nominee and the other party’s House nominee.
This includes seats held by Democratic Reps. Adam Gray (CA-13), Nellie Pou (NJ-09), and Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez (WA-03) and incumbent Republican Rep. Don Bacon (NE-02).
These four districts have seen Republicans reduce ad bookings in recent weeks, according to AdImpact data.
The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds Democrats have a 10-point advantage among registered voters and an 8-point advantage among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot. This means that many more seats are competitive on paper, before taking into account candidate quality or outside spending.
The cost of living remains voters’ top concern, as rising gas prices, tariffs and the ongoing war in Iran contribute to many Americans’ economic woes. At the same time, a record number of retirement announcements in Congress were amplified by an anti-incumbency streak in the primary elections.
A mid-decade wave of redistricting after a Supreme Court ruling that struck down part of the Voting Rights Act further muddied the map, as Republicans moved the boundaries to add more conservative voters in districts held by Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur (OH-09), Don Davis (NC-01), Shomari Figures (AL-02) and Darren Soto (FL-09).
(Democrats did the same in California for districts currently held by Republican Reps. James Gallagher (CA-01), David Valadao (CA-22), Ken Calvert (CA-41), Darrell Issa (CA-48), and independent Kevin Kiley (CA-06)).
Only Figures and Soto are in districts considered currently favorable to Republicans.
Big spending in many places
With millions of voters already casting their ballots in the midterms, there are dozens of races that both Democrats and Republicans see as worthy of a heavy investment in the final hours to help shape the outcome.
The most expensive of them: Michigan’s 7th District and North Carolina’s 1st District, each with more than $12 million in planned spending; Florida’s 14th, 22nd and 25th Districts; the 17th district of New York; Iowa’s 2nd and 3rd districts and a host of other races that favor Democrats or are considered toss-ups.
They include seats redrawn by Republicans this year to minimize Democrats’ voting power, like Alabama’s 2nd District and Tennessee’s 9th District, as well as districts where voters supported Trump in 2024 by more than 10 points like Kentucky’s 6th District and Arkansas’ 2nd District.
In total, all 70 races that have at least six figures of ad spending from each party voted for Trump by an average of 9 points in 2024.
Sixty districts are listed as priorities by the House Democratic and Republican campaign arms, underscoring the impact of the Trump administration’s unpopularity with voters over the last year.
Not every race will end close or see control of the party change hands. Many of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “In-Game Districts,” for example, gave Trump more than 60% of the vote in 2024 and saw little or no ad spending from either party.
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