A CNN poll of four key Senate elections in the final days of the midterm campaign finds Democrats in strong positions in Michigan and Texas, with no clear leader in the Maine or Kansas elections.
The four states tell the story of a midterm playing field that shifted in unexpected ways, leaving Democrats hopeful they could take control of the Senate after next Tuesday’s elections. This prospect seemed largely out of reach at the start of this year, and it is still far from being a reality. But with President Donald Trump’s popularity ratings even in states he easily won in 2024, once staunchly Republican territory now appears up for grabs.
In Michigan, the epitome of a battleground state, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed (49%) has taken a lead over Republican Mike Rogers (42%) among likely voters, amid signs that the state’s Democratic base has unified behind him and discouraged Republicans are retreating.
Texas, which hasn’t elected a Democrat in a statewide election race in three decades, gives Democrat James Talarico (49%) a slight lead over Republican Ken Paxton (43%) among likely voters. Talarico’s candidacy benefits from deeply negative impressions of Paxton, as well as significant support among the state’s Black, Latino and Asian voters who voted for Trump in 2024.
Early on, Maine was widely seen as one of the best pickup opportunities for Democrats this cycle, with Sen. Susan Collins the only Republican up for re-election in a state that voted Democratic in 2024. But the race remained close: The new poll of likely voters finds no clear leader between Collins (45%) and her Democratic challenger Troy Jackson (49%), even though the race has squarely become a referendum on Collins.
And in deep-red Kansas, there is no clear leader between Democrat Adam Hamilton (49%) and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall (45%), even though likely voters say they would prefer Republicans to control the Senate. Voters here largely view Marshall unfavorably and say their choices are more about Marshall than Hamilton.
Taken together, these four states paint a picture of a Democratic Party well-positioned to play a role in controlling the Senate. They illustrate the extraordinary diversity of the rules of the game in a political environment that borders on historic negativity toward the party in power, and the ways in which individual candidates can overcome – or succumb to – the forces of political habit.
For Democrats to take control of the Senate, they will need a net gain of four seats; three of those four seats are currently held by Republicans. Beyond basic calculations, they will need the prevailing political winds and dynamics of these individual races to align.
It is still possible that this dynamic could change. In every state except Maine, at least one in eight likely voters say they could still change their minds about who to support. In Texas and Kansas, at least 6 in 10 uncommitted likely voters are Republicans or Republican-leaning independents, suggesting it is possible that political gravity is working in favor of the Republican Party as voters make their decisions. However, more than 9 in 10 likely Maine voters say they are limited in their choice. In all four states, enough voters are mobile to close the gap between the candidates.
El-Sayed opened a lead over Rogers in what was a race without a clear leader in CNN’s poll around Labor Day. This lead is based on a deterioration in Rogers’ opinion, as well as consolidated support among Democrats following the state’s contentious primaries in August.
In total, El-Sayed now enjoys the support of 95% of likely Democratic voters, up slightly from 90% in the last poll.
It’s likely that voters in the state are largely making their choices based on their views of El-Sayed. Three-quarters of his supporters view their vote as support for him, and 57% of Rogers supporters say their vote is against El-Sayed – a reversal in how Rogers voters view their choice from earlier in the campaign.
This change comes as opinion of Rogers has deteriorated considerably: 50% now have an unfavorable opinion of the former congressman, compared to 42% at the beginning of September. El-Sayed’s favorable ratings remain roughly evenly split between positive and negative opinions.
Trump’s reaction and Talarico’s advantage in Texas
Texas’ Democratic Lean in Senate Race Demonstrates How Individual Candidates Can Short-Circuit–political circuit currents. Trump won Texas in 2024 by the largest margin in his three presidential campaigns, winning over a significant share of the state’s voters of color, including a majority of Latino and Asian voters. And there are signs that Talarico, to a greater extent than some other Democratic candidates, is outperforming the political environment.
Talarico has the support of 63% of likely Latino voters in the state and 64% of likely voters of color overall. This includes 22% of likely voters of color who say they supported Trump in 2024.
Talarico’s approval rating is much more positive than Paxton’s, and most of Talarico’s supporters say their decision is more a sign of support for the Democrat than an anti-Paxton vote. The poll finds that Paxton is struggling to generate positive support, even among his own supporters: 24% have an unfavorable view of Paxton, compared to just 2% of Democrats having a negative view of Talarico.
Still, no one would mistake Texas for Democratic-friendly territory. Even though Trump’s approval rating in the state has gone negative, the Republican Party remains more popular than the Democratic Party, and there is no clear leader in the state’s gubernatorial race.
The contrast of candidates in Kansas
In Kansas, the most Republican-friendly of the four states surveyed, only about a third have a positive view of the Democratic Party.
But Hamilton, like Talarico, surpasses his party – even if he is less well known. In this case, the more relevant number might be Marshall’s underperformance and unpopularity. Most likely voters say they have a negative view of the Republican candidate, and a 59% majority of Hamilton supporters say they are primarily motivated by opposition to Marshall.
Hamilton enjoys the support of about 12% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters, a significantly wider crossover than for any other Democratic candidate tested. And voters who have no opinion on Hamilton – about a fifth of the electorate – still support him over Marshall.
In blue-leaning Maine, a tight competition
There is no clear leader in Maine’s Senate race, and the fundamentals of the race remain about the same as in the last CNN poll just before Labor Day. Collins’ continued competitive stance speaks to her ability to respond to criticism that she is too close to an unpopular president.
Compared to Republican candidates in the other three states, Collins is less widely seen as willing to put the interests of Trump and the Republican Party ahead of those of her state’s people. In fact, likely Maine voters are about as likely to view Jackson as beholden to the Democratic Party as they are to say Collins is beholden to the GOP. Collins also garners more support among Trump disapprovers (21%) than any of the other Republican candidates tested in these polls (Rogers at 16%, Marshall at 12%, Paxton at 10%).
Collins needs to win over some disaffected voters to his party, because views of the GOP are more negative in Maine than in any of the other states surveyed.
The race clearly depends on Collins’ own opinion. About three-quarters of likely voters behind each candidate say their choices are driven more by Collins than Jackson. His favorable rating remains largely negative (54% have an unfavorable opinion), but Jackson’s is also narrowly negative (46% unfavorable to 39% favorable). And many more say they have seen ads supporting Collins (42%) rather than Jackson (27%).
In the final stretch, the poll finds that while Jackson supporters remain more motivated to vote (79% are extremely motivated compared to 62% among Collins supporters), the deep motivation of Collins voters has increased by 9 points since the beginning of September, while the motivation of Jackson voters has remained stable.
Many voters in these four states are keenly aware that their choice has national implications. For some, it’s a deciding factor — even beyond the character of the candidates and the issues at stake in specific races. A 55% majority of voters supporting Democrat Jackson in Maine say party control is their top concern, while in Texas and Kansas it’s more of a factor for those who support Republican candidates than Democrats, including half of those who support Marshall in Kansas.
But in those states that will likely play a central role in determining power in the Senate next year, a majority of voters cite other factors as a priority.
CNN’s Isabelle LaBianco contributed to this report.
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