NEW YORK (AP) – Congo’s Ebola outbreak has passed a dark stage this week – 10,000 confirmed cases – and has sparked questions about whether health authorities are losing their ability to contain it.
Nearly half of those infected in that outbreak have died, and some experts say there is reason to fear it could turn into the worst Ebola outbreak in history. Others don’t think he will reach that level. Researchers are currently working on updated projections.
Current circumstances suggest it is unlikely to trigger significant problems in most other countries, some researchers said. But about 30 confirmed cases have already appeared in other countries. And the risk of more appearing outside Congo will increase if the outbreak is not brought under control, said Justin Lessler, a University of North Carolina researcher who studies the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks.
Experts also hope a vaccine will be available next year that could help control it.
During a virtual summit of African health ministers on Wednesday, Africa CDC Director General Dr. Jean Kaseya said the continent was “not winning” the fight against Ebola and needed to do more after its spread. several African countries. “Together we agreed to prepare each country, coordinate across our borders, and keep those borders open while closely monitoring them,” Kaseya wrote on X.
Stable number of cases raises concerns about spread beyond Congo
Around 400 to 500 new confirmed cases have been reported in Congo each week, and this number appears to be holding steady. It’s good news that “cases are not increasing exponentially,” at least for now, said Dr. Boghuma Titanji, an infectious disease specialist at Emory University.
“But they won’t come down either,” she said. “We’re on a plateau. And the plateau is at a very, very high set point.”
A major challenge in Congo is limited contact tracing and collaboration with affected communities; health workers sometimes spend more time trying to convince residents to work with them than providing care.
Less than a quarter of new cases come from people known to have been in contact with an infected person, showing there are ongoing chains of transmission that health authorities are unaware of.
As cases rise, the likelihood that more infected people will travel to other countries increases, Titanji and other experts said. France, Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda have also reported cases linked to the Congo outbreak.
Travel restrictionslike those imposed by the United States, can make it more difficult for the virus to escape from Africa. And in many places where a traveler’s infection may appear, health officials should be able to quickly isolate an infected person and trace any contacts, experts say.
“The direct risk that this poses to the United States at this point, I would say, is very close to zero,” Lessler said.
But Ebola could break out in poor, conflict-stricken regions with weakened health systems, such as South Sudan, for example, Lessler said.
The viruses that cause Ebola are spread through contact with bodily fluids such as vomit, blood and semen.
The epidemic already ranks second
Dozens of Ebola outbreaks have been reported since the disease was discovered in 1976. the biggest and deadliest occurred in West Africa between 2014 and 2016, with 28,000 infections and more than 11,000 deaths.
The current outbreak is already the second largest and has recorded at least three times as many cases and deaths since it was declared, compared to the West African outbreak. Health authorities declared an outbreak in May, but medical evidence suggests infections were occurring. month ago.
One reason is that past outbreaks were almost all caused by the Ebola virus. Initial testing focused on this virus – not the related, but different, Bundibugyo virus that actually caused illness.
A range of other challenges have hampered the response, including armed conflict in certain epidemic areas, gaps in the health system, mistrust And disinformationand cuts in global aid, experts say.
Conditions vary across Congo, which explains why cases may be stable or declining in some places but may be trending upward in others, researchers and responders say.
“Testing, care and contact tracing only work if we work with communities, going door to door, village by village, to break the chain of transmission and stop this deadly escalation,” Katie Thomas-Canfield, director of the International Rescue Committee’s Ebola response, said in a statement.
Dr. Wendy Armstrong, president of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, said she thinks the situation will get worse.
“It’s very far from being controlled,” she said.
Scientists update their projections
Experts expect the outbreak to continue until the end of the year, but Titanji is hopeful for 2027. Indeed, vaccines are tested against the Bundibugyo virus, and she is optimistic that an effective vaccine will be available within the next 12 months.
She noted that no vaccine was available at the start of the epidemic in West Africa from 2014 to 2016.
Of course, it’s difficult to predict the outbreak, but scientists have tried.
In May, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released a series of scenarios generated by computer models. At the time, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 400 confirmed cases. United States CDC Models estimated that three-month case growth could range from 10,000 to more than 20,000.
The CDC is updating its modeling work. But the agency refused to let The Associated Press interview scientists about the evolution of the epidemic.
Alessandro Vespignani, a disease modeler at Northeastern University, monitors trends with U.S. and international health officials.
There hasn’t been the kind of “decrease in weekly case numbers that we need to see the light at the end of the tunnel,” he said.
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