NEW YORK (AP) — The nation’s major political parties are at a crossroads.
A decade after he began to remake the Republican Party in his image, President Donald Trump faces the prospect of an election rebellion Tuesday that could force conservatives to rethink their undying allegiance to the lame-duck 80-year-old leader and his “Make America Great Again” movement. Already, some Republican candidates have started to distance themselves from him.
And Democrats, who remain unpopular despite midterm momentum, are heading full speed into a tug-of-war between establishment leaders and emboldened progressives who demand nothing less than transformative change.
Whether either party wins or loses on Tuesday, the end of the 2026 midterm elections marks the start of a high-stakes fight for the country’s political future in the twilight of the Trump era — a fight that will quickly come to the forefront of American politics as new members of Congress arrive in Washington and the 2028 presidential campaign takes flight.
“When President Trump leaves office, it’s going to create a huge void. And I ask the question: Where will the country go next?” said former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu, a candidate for the New Hampshire Senate seat he lost in 2008.
Republicans begin to consider a post-Trump party
More than any policy or principle, the most powerful unifying force in the modern-day Republican Party has become Trump himself.
So as the party contemplates the end of the Trump era, major questions arise about who or what will guide it. Trump long ago shattered Ronald Reagan’s three-legged conservatism that defined the Republican Party for generations: a fiscal conservatism favoring small government and free trade, conservative social values and a muscular foreign policy.
What remains today is a fluid populism that evolves according to the whims of the outgoing president.
The brash businessman helped move the Republican Party away from the country club and toward a much broader coalition of working-class voters, including a growing slice of the traditional Democratic base, including Hispanics, African-Americans and young people.
Republican strategist David Urban said he was closely watching how the Trump coalition fared on Tuesday.
“When we see that, it will tell you a lot about the future,” Urban said. “Look, if all these people are staying home – they’re unhappy because of the economy, or the war, or picking your issue in the exit polls – then that leaves a lot of questions about who the party’s next standard bearer will be.
Most of the Republican Party buzz in 2028 has focused on Vice President JD Vance. The 42-year-old former Ohio senator has gone from Trump critic to Trump acolyte, and he may face the usual challenges of establishing an independent political identity while serving as the nation’s number two.
If Republicans have a bad night Tuesday, Vance’s presidential actions could suffer. Another popular 2028 candidate, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, could face a similar challenge.
But it could open the door for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, or perhaps even a vocal Trump critic like former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who is 64 and considering a comeback.
Democrats fail to agree on what to do next
With a few exceptions, Democratic officials expect a good night Tuesday, even if they don’t win both houses of Congress. However, they do not agree on what to do next.
The establishment is hailing the rise of Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, who is poised to become the nation’s first Black House speaker if Democrats win the majority. Frustrated progressives, however, say Jeffries and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer are part of the problem. And they demand radical changes in the population and in the policies that guide their party.
Such claims are particularly pronounced among Democrats aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America. Currently, only two DSA-backed members serve in the House of Representatives. Their number is expected to reach at least seven in the new Congress thanks to the success of the list of candidates supported by New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani during the primaries.
Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed would give the far left another strong supporter, although he is not endorsed by the DSA nor does he identify as a democratic socialist.
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, a Democratic presidential candidate who faces re-election next week, declined to say he welcomed DSA into his party when asked directly. Instead, he told the Associated Press that he wanted “no-nonsense leaders who are willing to disrupt the status quo and know how to move quickly to get things done.”
He has repeatedly said Democratic leaders must act urgently.
“I don’t want to be a party of no and slow. I want to be a party of yes and now,” Moore said. “I want to be a party that is deeply eager to be able to produce the kinds of results that we hope for and the things that we hope to see for our families.”
Moore’s rhetoric matches that of Democrats’ energetic activist class, but they almost certainly disagree on the tactics needed to combat Trump and his allies in Congress. And the left wing of the Democratic Party could only strengthen after the midterm elections.
Corbin Trent, a former adviser to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, said Tuesday marked a new beginning that gave Democrats a tremendous opportunity to enact transformative change in health care, housing and infrastructure, among other major issues.
But he’s not optimistic that the Democrats who lead the party in Washington are up to the challenge.
“This election is a rejection of the status quo,” Trent said. “The fact is that Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries and much of the Democratic leadership have proven incapable of seizing this moment for what it is: a transformative moment to move us forward.”
Meanwhile, Trump will remain in office for two more years, whether or not his party suffers significant losses next week. And even a politically wounded Trump would remain a dominant force in Republican politics and the upcoming race for the presidential nomination.
“Until the day Donald Trump takes his last breath, he will always tower over the Republican Party like the Colossus of Rhodes,” Urban said, referring to the ancient Greek statue that depicted the sun god, Helios. “No one will be more influential no matter what happens in this election. »
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Holly Ramer in Concord, New Hampshire, and Stephen Smith in Biloxi, Mississippi, contributed.
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