Two days before the midterm elections in the United States, Democratic and Republican leaders are making last-ditch efforts to woo voters, with the cost of living crisis, exacerbated by the US-Israeli war against Iran, becoming one of the main topics of discussion.
Democrats are still ahead of Republicans, according to the latest survey, but several hotly contested Senate elections could decide which party ends up taking control of the US Congress.
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On Sunday, President Donald Trump will campaign in Iowa and Kansas, while Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate facing a growing wave of Islamophobic attacks, will hold events in Michigan.
Here’s what you need to know:
What do the latest American mid-term polls say?
Democrats continue to lead Republicans 51.5 percent to 43.1 percent, according to the latest RealClearPolling average.
A national THP/MM survey conducted Oct. 28-29 gave Democrats a 54 percent lead to 41 percent, while an Emerson College poll conducted Oct. 24-26 showed a 10-point Democratic lead.
Natalie Jackson, a political analyst and pollster, told Al Jazeera the results reflected public dissatisfaction with Trump and the economy.
“Polls reveal a fairly favorable environment for Democrats. The president is very unpopular, Americans are feeling the impact of high costs, which are partly due to tariffs and the war in Iran, and the general feeling is that Republicans have not kept their promises over the past two years.”
In Kansas, a Washington Post-Schar School poll released Friday suggests Democrat Adam Hamilton leads against Republican Sen. Roger Marshall 52 percent to 43 percent.
But another Emerson College survey indicated a closer race, with Hamilton ahead of Marshall 50 to 47 percent.
Doug Heye, a Republican strategist and former communications director for the Republican National Committee, questioned the Washington Post-Schar School survey’s nine-point lead.
“I don’t know how it happens, but you know, we saw an outlier poll in Iowa just two years ago that did a lot of damage to the entire polling industry,” Heye said.
He was referring to a Des Moines Register poll released days before the 2024 presidential election that showed Kamala Harris leading Trump by three percentage points in Iowa. Trump went on to win the state by about 13 points, a 16-point difference from the poll margin.
“A lot of Republicans just don’t want to answer the pollsters’ calls,” he added.
Jackson, the political analyst, also said the polls may not accurately reflect the outcome of individual Senate elections.
“In some individual elections – particularly close Senate elections – we could see polling errors that move the race one way or another,” she said.
“Pollers have flagged potential problems getting Republicans to respond to polls. This could indicate that polls are underestimating Republicans, but we won’t know until the votes are counted.”
What happened during the election campaign in the last 24 hours?
As the election approaches, both parties are focusing their final campaign messages on the economy and the cost of living.
While Democrats focus on affordability issues, Trump is holding phone meetings for Republican candidates in hotly contested races.
Heye said Republicans are having trouble convincing voters that their economic policies will make the country better off.
Asked if Republicans had found a compelling final message, he said: “No, they haven’t. That’s a big part of their challenge.”
The Republican strategist said candidates should focus on issues raised by voters, particularly the cost of energy, health care, groceries and other daily expenses.
“Families are making very real economic decisions; you have to explain to them what you’re going to do to solve these problems,” Heye said.
Celinda Lake, a Democratic strategist and pollster working with El-Sayed’s campaign in Michigan, said Democrats also face questions about what they would get if they controlled Congress.
“Sentiments toward Democrats are also negative, which is very different from, say, 2018, when Democrats were viewed positively,” she said.
Lake said that while many voters were looking for change, they still weren’t sure what either party would do.
Where will Trump, El-Sayed and other candidates campaign today?
Trump is expected to hold rallies Sunday in Iowa and Kansas. The president initially canceled both appearances before reversing his decision on Friday.
In Iowa, in one of the contested Senate elections, Trump will campaign with Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley, who faces Democrat Josh Turek. In Kansas, Sen. Marshall is also seeking re-election against Democrat Adam Hamilton in a tight race.
The state hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, but rising agricultural costs and opposition to Trump’s immigration crackdown have made this race surprisingly competitive.
Heye said Trump shouldn’t have canceled the appearances in the first place.
“They should never have been canceled in the first place,” he said. “Whether they help or not, they certainly help Trump show that I’m trying to do things to get my people over the line.”
Meanwhile, El-Sayed is expected to campaign in Detroit and Southfield, Michigan, in an attempt to defeat Republican Mike Rogers in the Senate race.
Lake, who works with El-Sayed’s campaign, said the candidate has made affordability a key part of his message.
“He’s very clear. He says, ‘Money out of politics, money in your pocket and health care for all.'”
She said the Michigan race would depend heavily on voter turnout.
“I think it’s going to be a very close race. What we’re looking at is turnout,” she said.
How many Americans have already voted?
More than 51 million Americans have already voted, according to reports. Both parties encouraged voters to vote using the mail-in system or plan to vote Tuesday.
But early voting numbers don’t show which party will win, because they don’t specify how those voters voted.
Lake, the Democratic strategist, said turnout will be one of the most important factors in the election.
“Did Trump really rally the Republicans? Did the Democrats turn out in record numbers?” she asked.
She also identified young voters and the gender gap as important indicators to track in elections.
Jackson, the political analyst, said the last two days likely won’t bring major changes to the national political environment.
“It’s unlikely that anything will really change in the national environment. We might see some local developments in some of these races, but right now things are pretty locked in.”
Can Democrats Take Control of Congress?
In total, 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate are up for grabs.
Democrats need a net gain of three House seats and four Senate seats to win a majority in both chambers.
Although polls suggest Democrats are ahead, control of the Senate will depend on individual elections, including elections in Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Iowa, North Carolina and Alaska.
Jackson said the poll provided a clearer picture of the national political environment than the likely outcome of individual Senate elections.
“We can be pretty confident that the Democrats will win the majority in the House, but the situation in the Senate is unclear,” she told Al Jazeera.
Heye, the Republican strategist, also pointed out the differences between the House and Senate elections.
“The Senate is so campaign-specific, state-specific and candidate-specific. It’s a much harder read,” he said.
What happens next?
Candidates have Sunday and Monday to make their final appeals to voters before heading to the polls on Tuesday.
Polling stations will begin to close on Tuesday evening and the first results will be expected shortly after. However, some hotly contested races could take longer.
Heye said he will monitor early results in Indiana and Kentucky for guidance on how the election might play out.
“Yes, I’m starting with the two states that close the earliest, which are Indiana and Kentucky,” he said.
But Jackson warned that the results of individual Senate elections could differ from what the final polls suggest.
“This is always possible with polls,” she said, adding that the magnitude and direction of any polling error would become clear once votes are counted.
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