Kimi Antonelli will become much more than Formula 1’s youngest world champion if, as seems almost certain, he wins the 2026 title at the Mexican Grand Prix later today.
The 20-year-old only needs two more points, equivalent to a single ninth place, from the remaining races to be champion, while his remaining mathematical rivals, George Russell and Lewis Hamilton, must effectively win all of this season’s remaining races.
Antonelli’s campaign already stands out statistically from that of previous first-time title winners.
He will be the 36th F1 world champion, but he is expected to be in the minority as 20 of them have claimed their first title in the race finale. Antonelli, by comparison, is on his way to the title and poised to clinch it after 19 rounds. This will be with 82.6% of the season completed, by this measure, the fifth fastest of the first title winners. He maintains that position even if this season drops to 22 rounds, no matter how you adjust the math.
Those ahead are led by Nigel Mansell, who finally won his only championship at the age of 39 in 1992 and sealed it with just 68.8% of the past season. However, he was a veteran of title fights dating back to 1986. Jim Clark (70% of the season in 1963) and Jackie Stewart (72.5% of the 1969 season) were next in line.
The only other driver who won faster than Antonelli thought was Alberto Ascari (75% of the 1952 season) when the world championship was reserved for Formula 2 machines.
Antonelli is set to be one of only three drivers in the last 30 years to clinch their first title before the final round. This will place him in the illustrious company of Fernando Alonso (89.5% of the 2005 season) and Jenson Button (94.1% of the 2009 season).
All of these championships were won in different machines against different levels of opposition, but Antonelli’s also stands out as something of a victory. Even among the first 16 titles won without making it to the final round, some were genuine title battles that continued throughout the season before tilting in one driver’s favor.
For example, Alain Prost’s 1985 McLaren championship was sealed with two races remaining, but Ferrari’s Michele Alboreto was alongside him before failing to score in the final five races. Alan Jones (1980), Button and Ayrton Senna (1988) and Alonso all took part in real battles.
And while it can be argued that Mercedes’ dominance played a big part in all of this, Russell’s performance in the second car shows that it could have looked like a profoundly different season without Antonelli’s genius.
Gn sports
