The question that could tip the scales in the Texas Senate race

This year’s midterm elections in Texas are expected to cost a billion dollars, more than half of which will be spent on the U.S. Senate campaign – what could be the most expensive non-presidential race in American history. But whatever the price, it is certainly one of the most combative.

Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton’s campaign bus displays a rallying cry from the 19th-century Texas revolution against Mexico: “Come and take it.” Paxton, whose government tenure was marked by controversy, is President Trump’s chosen nominee. At a rally on October 23, Paxton urged the crowd: “Do you believe in protecting Texas and stopping Sharia law?” Me too. Do you believe that parents, not the government, should raise your children? Me too.

Paxton’s opponent is Presbyterian seminarian and former college professor, state Rep. James Talarico. As Election Day approaches, polls show both candidates in a tight race.

Talarico takes his campaign’s closing theme from the Texas high school football television show, “Friday Night Lights.” He told the crowd in San Antonio on October 24: “To win this election, we have to execute. We have to leave it all on the ground. We have to win.”

The problems in Texas reflect concerns across the country: high prices, immigration, government corruption and the power of big tech and billionaires. As the song says, “The eyes of Texas are on you.” And now all eyes are on Texas.

“A big, messy and complicated election”

Sarah Adler Hartman and Matthew Watkins are CEO and editor-in-chief of the Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization. We invited them to the historic Salt Lick Restaurant, just outside Austin, for Hill Country barbecue and a little politics.

When asked if all the attention on Texas is just inflating Texans’ egos into becoming the center of the political universe, Hartman replied, “Everything is bigger in Texas!”

Hartman acknowledges that despite Texas’ popular image, the state has a growing population of Asian Americans, a growing Latino population and more and more people from across the country.

“Texas is very different from the caricature that people paint of Texas outside the state,” she said, “and I think you see that, and you see some of the growing pains, the cognitive dissonance in all of this.”

Watkins noted, “There are more Democratic voters in Texas than there are in Massachusetts. There are traditionally Democratic voters in rural areas of the Rio Grande Valley who are very socially conservative. There are, you know, really liberal white people in Austin.

“These races are above all a question of participation”

Last weekend, “Sunday Morning” followed Paxton and Talarico as they both stumped in and around San Antonio, and spoke to some of their supporters.

Paxton’s supporters say the race is about what it means to be a real Texan. One man said of Democrats moving into the state: “They don’t understand. They bring their point of view here, and it’s going to ruin everything. It’ll be like California if something doesn’t change.”

Another woman said she didn’t consider Talarico a Democrat: “He’s more for communism and taking away the rights that we were founded on in this country,” she said, adding that he “alarms” her.

Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is on the trail campaigning for Paxton. “Look, this race is neck and neck; it’s a tie,” Cruz said. “This election is all about turnout. The left is going to show up. They hate Donald Trump. They’re going to show up. The question is: Will everyone do it? Will everyday people vote? If everyday people come out to vote, we’ll win Texas and have a good election.”

“There are many more honest people”

Talarico’s supporters say the GOP’s attacks on their candidate, across the border and transgender rights, aren’t working.

One woman doesn’t buy the argument that Latino voters in Texas are turned off by Talarico on cultural issues: “I mean, I’m Latina, so I’m brown and proud,” she said. “I just voted this morning for James Talarico, so I’m very excited to hopefully see the change that’s going to happen.”

This change will not be easy. Conservative Republicans have ruled Texas for decades. But some Democrats believe their time has come. A woman was moved and told us: “I hope that this election will see that there will be honest people, there are many more honest people than corrupt and cruel people. It’s not about being a Republican, it’s not about being a Democrat right now. It’s good versus evil.

Congressman Joaquin Castro, a Democrat from San Antonio, says economic concerns are paramount, even as cultural struggles dominate the headlines. “The prices are so high, you know, people really feel it economically. They feel like they don’t have time for (the cultural fights). I mean, all these attacks on transgender people or all these other cultural things? It’s like I can’t pay my bills, I can’t afford gas.

“Also, you know, James Talarico, he’s really a generational talent,” Castro said. “I know you hear that. But he’s someone who’s trying to unify people.”

Although diners at the Salt Lick didn’t seem to be paying much attention, rising costs — of beef, gas and housing — could be the deciding factor here and across the country.

“Many people across the country view Texas as the beating heart of conservatism for the country,” said Matthew Watkins of the Texas Tribune. “There are people on the right who say, ‘We can’t lose Texas or we’ll lose the country;’ there are people on the left who say, ‘Man, if we win Texas, it’s a big deal.’ There’s this kind of psychological weight that makes people feel, Okay, we can’t lose thisOr, What if we won this? This makes people really interested in this race. »

Story produced by Ed Forgotson. Publisher: Georges Pozderec.

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