Much like the Jaguars’ blowout loss, the Patriots’ emotional loss to the Bills in Buffalo raised many questions on the other side of the spectrum. Instead of wondering if the Patriots and Drake Maye were really as bad as they seemed in Jacksonville, we’re now wondering if Maye and the Patriots have arrived. Like last week, there are no definitive answers after four games, but we are getting some indicators. Let’s break down the big themes into three categories: what seems real, what might be fool’s gold, and what’s still in question.
The Patriots have a big coaching advantage over the Bills: After leaving Sean McDermott and promote CO Joe Bradythe Bills have a first-time head coach and first-time defensive coordinator in Jimmy Leonhard. While I still think Leonhard has the traits to be a good DC (if he gets players at the second and third levels) once players spend more time in his system, the Patriots appear to have decided advantages in the coaching category at HC (Mike Vrabel vs. Brady), defense (Vrabel/Zak Kuhr vs. Brady), and offense (Josh McDaniels vs. Leonhard). And I don’t see that changing anytime soon, perhaps if Brady and Leonhard have more time to dedicate to their task.
The Bills were clearly not prepared for this game. Brady told the CBS crew he would have preferred Christian Gonzalez in the lineup because he would have a better idea of what to expect from the Patriots defense (more man coverage). The Bills came into this game loaded with man coverage hitters in their game plan, and they were barely able to use them (Buffalo put them on a center while Carlton Davis was picked off). This may have contributed to some extremely poor play from Josh Allen, who seemed sped up from the start. He was panicked when he didn’t need to be, and I noted eight plays where Allen had opportunities to make plays against the Patriots and I outright missed them due to a lack of patience. Also, Brady should be ashamed for only giving RB Jacques Cook eight passes through three quarters against a Patriots defense that still ranks 28th against the run in DVOA and was without Christian Barmore. Relying on Allen, especially when he’s out (it’s been at least two straight weeks where he played poorly and his decision-making was very questionable), is a losing proposition for the Bills. Until Brady realizes that the offense has to run through Cook, the Bills will not perform well.
Defensively, it seemed like either the Bills hadn’t studied Maye’s weaknesses before this game or the players couldn’t execute. The game was largely decided by these numbers: Maye 8 carries, 54 yards; Allen 5 carries, 4 yards. For the Bills to pass Maye (primarily Ed Oliver) on the second play of the game out of their own end zone for 15 yards is absolutely criminal. The Bills’ game plan should have been to have Maye beat them from the pocket, not let him roll to his right, and not give him one-on-one matchups outside of the numbers. Instead, the Bills allowed all of these things repeatedly to make this Maye’s easiest decision-making game since before last year’s playoffs.
The second half of Drake Maye: If you were looking for old Maye, it was all there in the second half. Maye showed improvements in the first half with his timing and accuracy, but there were still plenty of bad moments (lost fumble in FG range, poorly thrown interception for no reason, contributed to two turnovers, and missed a few reads). In my ranking, he finished the first half with seven plays up (+1 up for the Doubs TD where he launched a piss missile while getting hit – it was close to a disaster led by Will Campbell) and eight plays down (-1.5 up for the two turnovers).
Gn sports
