Voting (Kyodo News)
Republicans are gaining 9 percentage points on late-deciding voters in seven Senate races, according to a new poll suggesting the Republican Party is gaining momentum ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections.
The New York Times/University of Siena survey, released Sunday, found that voters who made their choices over the past month favored Republican candidates, even as Democrats maintained their leads in six of seven elections.
“There are still some undecided voters, and those who made up their minds only last month favored Republicans by a nine-point margin,” the Times reported.
The results offer Republicans an encouraging sign heading into Election Day, even as Democrats continue to hold advantages in several races that could determine control of the Senate.
According to the Times/Siena poll, Democrats lead by 11 points in Michigan, 7 points in Texas, 6 points in Maine and 5 points each in Ohio and Kansas.
In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by 2 points, while the Iowa Senate race remains effectively tied, according to the survey.
Despite the Republican Party’s advantage among late-decided voters, the seven Democratic candidates were viewed more favorably by independents than by their Republican opponents.
Republicans have hammered Democrats on social issues and accusations of embracing socialism, while Democrats have attacked President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy and the Iran conflict.
The vote comes amid developments in two closely watched Senate elections.
In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens surprised her party Sunday by endorsing Republican Mike Rogers over Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed, who beat her in the August primary.
The surprise endorsement sparked backlash from Democrats and added uncertainty to a race seen as key to the party’s hopes of winning control of the Senate.
In Alaska, the Times reported Wednesday that operatives allegedly linked to Peltola’s campaign had recruited a candidate with a name similar to Sullivan’s to siphon votes from the Republican incumbent.
Peltola’s campaign has denied any involvement, and the allegations have sparked a legal dispute involving the Trump administration.
The Times said its Alaska poll was largely complete before the allegations surfaced, meaning the political consequences may not be reflected in the results.
The survey also found that all Democratic candidates except Peltola improved their standing against their Republican opponent compared to the previous Times/Siena poll.
However, the Times warned that polling errors remain a concern, particularly among white, working-class voters.
“Blue-collar whites have proven particularly difficult to reach in polls, and polling errors have been among the highest in this demographic group,” the Times reported.
The poll was conducted from Oct. 23 to Nov. 1 and surveyed 5,708 voters, with margins of error ranging from plus or minus 3.3 percentage points in Texas to plus or minus 4.8 percentage points in Alaska.
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