That’s 11 out of 53 players who missed even one game during their MVP season. Many of them came at the end of the regular season, with players sitting out to prepare for the playoffs. Aside from Rodgers’ positive COVID test in 2021, no QB has missed a game due to injury during their MVP season since Steve McNair in 2003.
Of the five MVPs who missed more than one game, three were running backs, who accumulated enough stats to win the award – Emmitt Smith missed the first two games during a contract impasse with the Cowboys in 1993. McNair shared the award with Peyton Manning after missing a few late games with calf and ankle injuries; The Titans QB led the NFL in passer rating and yards per attempt that year.
MVP voters leaned toward QBs who rack up stats and stay on the field. In 2016, there was discussion, particularly in the Northeast, about whether Tom Brady, who missed the first four games of the season due to the Deflategate suspension, should be considered for MVP after returning to lead the Pats to an 11-1 record with a TD-INT ratio of 28-2. Brady finished second to the Falcons’ Matt Ryan with 20 percent of the vote.
Montana’s 1989 season for San Francisco is the only exception. Despite missing three games, Montana was the best QB on the NFL’s best team, winning the MVP vote in a landslide (62 votes out of 70). The 49ers QB overcame the lack of counting stats by leading the NFL in every efficiency category: 70.2% completion rate, 6.7 TD completion rate, 53.7%, 9.1 yards per attempt average, 270.8 yards per game, and set the then-record with a passer rating of 112.4 – when 100 passer rating was rare.
This is Williams’ path to becoming MVP: being the most efficient passer on the best team.
The Bears QB currently ranks second in completion percentage (70.9), fourth in INT rate (0.6), eight in completion rate (49.7), fifth in yards per attempt (8.0), 11th in yards per game (253.4), fifth in passer rating (104.6), while ranking second in QBR (78.9), third in EPA per dropback (0.22) and fifth in win probability added (117.0%).
Overcoming missed games in terms of the MVP race is extremely difficult. Missing three is historically intimidating. Williams isn’t there yet, but if he manhandles other defenses like he did with the Seahawks on the road, he’ll have a chance to join Montana as an outlier in the record books.
Now let’s move on to the rankings!
Gn sports
