Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, United States, November 2, 2026.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Stock futures fell as traders speculated that Democrats were headed for majority control of Congress and key gubernatorial victories in the 2026 US midterm elections.
Futures linked to the S&P 500 is trading down 1.1%, while Nasdaq-100 Futures Contracts lost 2%. Futures contracts linked to Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 367 points, or 0.7%.
Kalshi’s chances for Democratic Senate control rose above 90%, showing traders were increasingly betting on a big night for Democrats. The chances of widely expected Democratic control of the House jumped to 99% for Democrats. The CNBC Elections Bureau currently projects that control of this chamber “is tilted toward Democrats” and that Democrats will win at least 210 of the 435 seats, while Republicans will win at least 160.
Democratic candidate for Texas governor Gina Hinojosa, who has promised a moratorium on data centers in this key technology hub, leads Republican incumbent Greg Abbott with a third of the vote.
If Democrats were able to secure a sizable majority in the Senate – the so-called blue wave scenario – the market – particularly stocks linked to the development of artificial intelligence – could come under pressure, according to some on Wall Street. Investors fear a big Democratic victory could lead to more restrictions on data centers nationwide. AI-related stocks have already retreated in recent weeks amid concerns about slowing data center spending.
Big Tech Stocks Microsoft, Amazon And Nvidia were all trading lower in extended trading. Data center high-risk play CoreWeave was down 6% in overnight trading on Robinhood. That of Elon Musk EspaceX was down 4% on Robinhood.
Stocks are “trending lower as it seems more likely that Democrats will win the House and very likely the Senate,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial.
“I think it will be more interesting on how the governorships go,” Saglimbene added. “If some governors are Democrats, what does that mean for data center construction, which has already received a lot of skepticism over the last couple of weeks in terms of hyperscaler capital spending.”
S&P 500 Futures, Intraday
Of course, polling stations are not yet completely closed in all states. Election nights were often marked by strong fluctuations on the markets. Many investors also believe that any market movement following these elections would be short-lived.
AMD Shares initially jumped double digits in after-market trading after the company, a key player in the AI business, reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat analysts’ expectations. The stock was last up about 3% as stock futures gave up gains.
Across the market, investors believe a blue wave would also be a headwind, as it would likely rule out more business-friendly policies, such as tax breaks, and potentially increase scrutiny of sectors like banking.
Renewable stocks, like solar stocks, traded higher in the aftermarket on speculation that a Democratic majority in Congress would halt President Donald Trump’s policies taken against the industry. THE Invesco Solar ETF was up 3.5% in Robinhood trading.
As stock futures fell into the red, Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling more than 3 basis points to 4.915%. Futures on the Cboe Volatility Index the fear indicator rose, above 20, as investors prepared for a pullback.
“Now all eyes are on the president and what reaction we might get from him,” said Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. “Will there be contested elections, will there be more uncertainty in the ranks?”
“This is where the market could really get excited,” he said.
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