Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free
Your guide to what Trump’s second term means for Washington, business and the world
Tuesday night feels like the beginning of the end for Donald Trump. His response to what amounts to a scathing personal rebuke of America in the midterms will likely be volatile. Still, it’s hard to imagine how he could break through such a strong Democratic wave after urging voters to act as if his name was on the ballot. Against Trump’s advice, he turned the elections into a referendum against him. It thus possesses the historic scale of the Republican defeat.
There were plenty of other losers Tuesday night. Elon Musk, who pumped more than $200 million of his own money into the Texas Senate race, has learned that even historically large donations can’t buy love or results in the face of such public swing. Its candidate, Ken Paxton, lost to Democratic candidate James Talarico, who wasn’t even born the last time a Democrat won a Texas Senate seat. It was also a disastrous night for the once-powerful American-Israeli Public Affairs Committee, which spent a lot of money trying to defeat Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan. El-Sayed is poised to become the first Muslim senator in U.S. history who also received a majority of Michigan’s Jewish votes, according to exit polls.
It was also a terrible night for Vivek Ramaswamy, Trump’s bombastic understudy, who was defeated in the Ohio gubernatorial race. He could now retire from politics after spending a large part of his personal fortune on what was considered a safe bet only a few months ago. Likewise, the late Lindsey Graham would turn in her proverbial grave to see her recently appointed sister, Darline Graham, lose her longtime South Carolina seat to a Democrat — the first time the party has won a Senate race there in nearly 30 years. Many more milestones will pass in the 2026 U.S. midterms, with what early numbers suggest will be historically high turnout. America finally seems to have lost the charm of Trump.
In every race, Trump’s muscular contribution has had a boomerang effect. In a phone interview with me an hour before the first polls closed, Trump said he was energized by the enthusiasm he saw during his recent frenzied campaign schedule. Presidents typically work to keep their names out of headlines during midterm elections. Many avoid election campaigns altogether. Trump has traversed the map with the energy of a much younger person, but he appears to have only exacerbated his party’s electoral quagmire.
Not only has Trump placed himself at the center of every news cycle; he went out of his way to downplay the electorate’s main concerns. Affordability was a “democracy (sic) hoax,” Trump insisted. Although the war in Iran and its inflationary effects were a dominant theme, Trump told voters he had kept all his promises. One of them was to avoid wars in the Middle East. Some believe he was showing clear signs of cognitive decline. “I actually kept a lot more promises than I made,” Trump cryptically suggested the day before the election.
Perhaps his most psychologically capricious choice was to deliver his big campaign closing speech in front of the reflecting pool of the Lincoln Memorial in Washington – a Trump obsession that few Americans seem to share. In the annals of American political campaigning, no more bizarre final argument could have been attempted. The majority of Trump’s hour-long speech on election eve focused on the pool.
“The reflecting pool right now is more beautiful than it has ever been,” Trump said, after claiming that Barack Obama and Joe Biden had tried unsuccessfully to improve the body of water. “We are replacing all the grass and all the parks. Because, like humans, grass also has a life.” Some Trump White House staffers who were watching the event on television reportedly buried their faces in their hands as he spoke.
Democrats will now control both houses of the US Congress, with a result that even Trump may find “too big to rig”. There are two immediate consequences. The first is that the Republican campaign to replace him as candidate in 2028 will begin immediately. Indeed, Ron DeSantis, the outgoing governor of Florida, undoubtedly launched this project even before the close of the poll. Without naming Trump, he said no public official should make money while carrying out their duties. This suggests an anti-corruption backlash following an election where this theme led many recent polls.
The second consequence is that Trump’s unpredictability risks becoming an even more prominent feature of his presidency. For those who oppose him, Tuesday night was love at first sight. But Trump is rarely outbid on the dramatic stakes. Regardless of his reaction, the 2026 outcome will change the course of America. The Republican defeat in the 2018 midterms marked the end of the beginning of Trump, to use Churchill’s expression. This week’s high turnout, a decade after Trump came down from that escalation, marks the beginning of his end.
(email protected)
Gn headline
