It was a historic blue tsunami: the Democratic Party captured both houses of Congress, losing as many as seven seats in the Senate and at least 29 in the House of Representatives.
Just two years ago, the country was hit by a red wave. How could things have changed so drastically?
A cocktail of crucial factors: Voters fed up with the economy, Democratic candidates emerging as large and more favored voting blocs — including Latinos and black men — turning blue, views of the Republican Party declining and a resounding rejection of President Donald Trump himself, according to the NBC News exit poll.
Here are five key insights we gleaned from Tuesday’s stunning midterm elections by analyzing data from the poll, which surveyed more than 79,000 voters across the country.
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1) Americans were deeply negative about the state of the economy and pessimistic about the country’s future.
An overwhelming majority of voters (75%) rated the country’s economy as “not so good” or “bad,” according to the poll. And they undermined their confidence in the Republicans to handle the situation.
Sixty-nine percent said the U.S. economic system favors the wealthy, and only 31 percent said it favors most Americans. This perception emerged at a time when the vast majority of voters were expressing concerns about the cost of living. More than 80% of voters said they were concerned about the price of basic necessities: gasoline and diesel, food and groceries, utilities and health care.
Thirty-seven percent of voters said they favored Republican control of the economy, while 43% favored Democrats — a change in outlook from the 2024 election. Voters also blamed Trump: 65% said the president’s policies had made the economy worse. Only 27% said they had improved the economy.
Sixty-two percent said the higher-than-usual prices were more due to Trump’s policies than factors beyond his control, and 65% said his tariff policies were hurting the nation’s economy.
Their frustration extended beyond the economy – and extended to a pessimistic view of the United States as a whole. Three in four voters said they were unhappy with the way things are going in the United States, and more than a third (38%) said they were angry at the state of the country.
More than half of voters (57%) said life for the next generation of Americans will be worse than today; only 22% said they thought it would be better.
2) Democratic candidates enjoyed advantages in favorability, character, and experience.
In an overwhelmingly negative political environment, Democratic Senate candidates proved highly favored in races that appeared tough for them early in the election cycle, according to the poll.
Democrats above water in favorability included Jon Ossoff in Georgia, where 59 percent of the state’s voters said they viewed him favorably; James Talarico in Texas, where 52% of voters said they viewed him positively; and Josh Turek in Iowa, where 49% of voters said they viewed him favorably. All three candidates won their races.
The Republicans, for their part, had difficulty convincing voters.
In two key Senate elections, voters expressed negative opinions about the personal character of Republican candidates.
In Kansas, 43 percent of voters said Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, an obstetrician-gynecologist who came under scrutiny after The New York Times reported he sued hundreds of patients over unpaid bills, had the right personality for the job. Marshall described the story as a “hit piece”.
Voters’ opinions were worse about Ken Paxton’s personal character. Only 34% of Texas voters had a positive view of the attorney general, who has battled scandals for years and was impeached in 2023 by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives before the state Senate acquitted him.
Paxton and Marshall lost their Senate bids.
Trump-aligned candidates have also struggled. In North Carolina, Michael Whatley was seen as too supportive of Trump (60%), and in South Carolina, where the president supported Darline Graham, only 35% of voters said she had a good experience.
3) After flirting with the GOP in 2024, the large Democratic voting blocs have returned in force.
By ignoring or disparaging many of the new voters who played a key role in Trump’s victory two years ago, Republicans squandered the opportunity to cement a new coalition of voters.
Latinos, who notably gave Trump nearly half (46%) of their votes in 2024, rebounded against Democrats, who garnered 62% of Latino support in House races, according to the poll.
Among Black male voters, 1 in 5 voted for Trump in 2024. That share fell to 13% for Republican House candidates this year.
Trump narrowly won men under 25 in 2024, receiving 49% of their votes, compared to 48% for Democrat Kamala Harris. But young men moved dramatically away from the Republican Party in this year’s House races: Democrats swept them by a margin of 68% to 28%.
Overall, more Trump voters experienced buyer’s remorse (6% supported Democratic House candidates) than Harris voters (3% defected to the Republican Party).
4) And Trump himself was roundly rejected by voters.
Trump tried to energize his base by encouraging his supporters to vote by saying, “I’m on the ballot.” But the nation has largely deteriorated because of his presidency, according to the poll.
Trump’s popularity rating among voters, only 38%, the lowest rate for a president since 2008.
Forty-three percent of voters said they voted in the House to express opposition to Trump. Only 16% said they voted to express support for him.
Voters gave Trump extremely negative ratings on key aspects of his presidency, saying he prioritized “his own personal interests” over those of the country (62%), that his war on Iran was a “bad decision” (63%), and that his actions on immigration had “gone too far” (57%).
5) A key distinction: This is a blue tsunami, not a progressive earthquake.
Politicians and pundits took Trump’s 2024 victory as an endorsement of his deeply conservative plans. But the 2024 NBC Exit Poll found little evidence of an ideological shift to the right.
The story is the same this year: On key issues, voters are no more progressive than they were two years ago.
Among this year’s voters, 64 percent said abortion should be legal in most or all cases. This is just one notch below the 65% share in 2024.
In 2024, 23% of voters considered themselves liberal, while 35% called themselves conservative. These numbers are virtually unchanged among voters in 2026, standing at 25% liberals and 34% conservatives.
Voter opinions on socialism remained largely negative, at 54% unfavorable and 33% favorable. This year, only one in five voters considered themselves a democratic socialist. On the other hand, capitalism remains relatively well seen in the minds of voters (57% favorable, 32% unfavorable).
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