SpaceX spacecraft will need to refuel 22 times in space to reach the Moon

While NASA plans to return astronauts to the surface of the Moon in 2028, it still remains to figure out how to get them there. While the Artemis II mission proved that we can send people around the Moon and bring them home safely, the space agency needs a way to get astronauts out of the Orion capsule and back to the ground. The original plan was for a SpaceX ship to fulfill this task, and that could still be the case. But delays in the development of this ambitious rocket led NASA to reopen the contract, allowing Blue Origin to jump into the ring. Yet SpaceX insists it will fend off this challenge from a rival billionaire-owned space company and win the contract again. The only thing standing in its way: the minor fact that it needs to refuel the Starship in orbit, something that’s never been done before and SpaceX hasn’t even attempted yet. Oh, and he has to do it many, many times. How much? Excellent question.

NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Group recently announced that, according to its calculations, a spacecraft would require 22 orbital refuelings to get this single rocket to the surface of the Moon, according to Ars Technica. Again, the total number of times a rocket has done this is zero. Specifically, SpaceX’s plan is to launch a spacecraft into orbit to serve as a fuel depot; then launch many more spaceships to load the first with fuel; then launch one last spaceship to collect this fuel from the depot and head to the Moon.

If 22 seems like an insane number to you, you’re not alone: ​​Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, said on the social media platform The reason it’s so unclear is because the fuel we’re talking about here is not gasoline, but rather a mixture of liquid oxygen and methane. In reality, it evaporates into the vacuum of space. The amount of fuel that can be transferred therefore depends on the efficiency of the technology involved. A technology that has never really been tested in orbit.

Currently, SpaceX plans to conduct its first orbital refueling test in early 2027, a little over a year before theoretically doing so for the moon landing. If that doesn’t work, well, SpaceX’s lunar ambitions are in trouble. Even if everything goes well, and there are absolutely no problems with this unprecedented capability, there is still the small matter of actually launching all these rockets. Currently, the Starship, still in development, only launches once every few months. Musk says it will launch weekly by early 2027, a few months from now. And then it further claims that it will launch twice a week by the end of 2027. Let’s just say that it would be truly remarkable if that happened.

For once, let’s be optimistic and believe in words. If these words are true and Starship actually launches twice a week, then launching 22 supply ships (plus launching the initial “depot” ship) would take… three months. And that’s assuming there are no failures, either of the rockets or of the fuel transfer process. This is reduced to three weeks if we also believe the figure of six launches put forward by Musk. At least Musk never lied about his company’s capabilities! If for some reason you don’t believe in this launch cadence, total refueling will potentially take years. Either way, it would represent the most complicated undertaking NASA, or any other space entity, has ever attempted.

In contrast, Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin has a much simpler plan for getting to the Moon. It’s still complicated, let’s be clear, but less than SpaceX. The company’s proposal calls for just four launches of its New Glenn rocket, assuming it doesn’t explode and destroy its entire launch pad again. The first three would park a booster stage in orbit; the fourth would orbit a Blue Moon lunar lander, where it would collect all the booster stages, stack them, and then blast off to the Moon. It’s a wild dance in itself, but it doesn’t require knowing how to transfer fuel.

If you’re wondering where the real astronauts are, don’t worry: they’re completely in different rocket completely. The Space Launch System (SLS) rocket carries the Orion capsule into orbit with all the astronauts on board. The capsule then continues alone from Earth orbit to lunar orbit, as demonstrated by the Artemis II mission. Somewhere along this path – whether in high Earth orbit, high Lunar orbit, or low Lunar orbit (this part is still unspecified) – the Orion capsule will have to dock with either the Starship or the Blue Moon, depending on who wins the contract. The lander will then land, the astronauts will enjoy a nice ride around another world, and then the lander will return to lunar orbit. Then return aboard the Orion capsule then return to Earth.

It seems easy! Basically, a plot must go well for NASA to reach the 2028 landing date. How this will play out in practice depends on how a lot of untested equipment and procedures work. Then again, going back to the 1960s, the Apollo program wasn’t really more precedent or safer. During this decade, however, NASA performed many more test demonstrations before going to the Moon. This time, the agency wants to get there more quickly.