It will be at least a week before Alaska’s most competitive races are featured. And even longer before the ranking of choices takes place and the final winners are known.
But analysts are struggling to read the tea leaves.
Here are six takeaways from what we know so far:
1. The U.S. Senate race remains far too close to call and will last several days.
On Wednesday, Democrat Mary Peltola was a few hundred votes ahead of Republican Senator Dan Sullivan. But many votes remain to be counted and, assuming no one reaches 50%, the state will still have to tabulate the ranked choices, which will take place on November 18.
Yet there are many theories and memos circulating that predict the outcome of the race. Some are calculating the partisan lean of absentee, early and rural ballots yet to be counted. Some examine the Record votes cast. This is the raw vote data that the Division of Elections releases, based on preliminary tallies. The CVR allows any armchair analyst to take a look at ballot rankings. It’s tempting. But it’s a close race and is subject to change. Follow official results here or sources based on them like ours.
If Peltola remains in the lead, there is no indication that the Trump administration or Gov. Mike Dunleavy will abandon the idea of blocking certification to investigate whether confused Sullivan supporters accidentally voted for the other Dan Sullivan on the ballot.
Daniel J. Sullivan of Petersburg is in last place, but Professor Forrest Nabors of the University of Alaska Anchorage pointed out that adding up the two Sullivans’ votes exceeds Peltola’s tally.
“If you like peace and you don’t like partisan drama, that’s not a good sign,” Nabors said. “Because that could then give pretext to the executive branch of our state government to, you know, file a protest (and) potentially deny certification.”
Editor’s note: This election results tool was generated using an AI tool and verified by a journalist. You can find Alaska Public Media’s commitments regarding the use of AI on this page.
2. Kreiss-Tomkins will likely be Alaska’s next governor.
For the first time since Gov. Tony Knowles won a second term in 1998, Alaska is poised to send a Democrat to the governor’s mansion.
According to the latest results update Wednesday, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins has 49% of the primary vote. If he ultimately wins a majority of first-choice votes – 50% plus one vote – the race will not require tabulation of ranked choices.
Jim Lottsfeldt, a strategist who frequently works on left-wing campaigns, said he expects the bumper vote to propel Kreiss-Tomkins to the top.
“I think he wins this race before it’s even ranked,” Lottsfeldt said.
Early Wesley
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Alaska Public Media
But even if Kreiss-Tomkins doesn’t cross the 50% threshold in first-choice votes, the Republican path to victory is extremely narrow. It would require almost all Republican voters to rank all other Republican candidates, and almost none to rank Kreiss-Tomkins.
According to an Alaska Public Media analysis of raw voting data released by the Division of Elections known as the Cast Vote Record, Republican voters so far are not ranked in sufficient numbers to allow a GOP candidate to win.
For example: Of the roughly 15,000 people who ranked Republican Treg Taylor fourth, about 60 percent ranked another Republican second. About 5 percent ranked Kreiss-Tomkins second. And about a third did not rank another candidate.
However, the Associated Press has not yet called the race, meaning it remains uncertain.
Bronson told Alaska Public Media Tuesday night that he doesn’t see a path to a Republican victory. Republican Bernadette Wilson, who received about 29% of the first-choice vote, remains hopeful.
“Stay steadfast in prayer,” she told her followers on social media on Wednesday.
James Daggett
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Alaska Public Media
3. Republican U.S. Rep. Begich appears poised to win a second term.
Nationally, it was a good year to be a Democrat. Unfortunately for Alaska Democrats, the only D candidate in the race for the U.S. House of Representatives was Eric Hafner. He is in custody and serving a 20-year sentence in a federal prison in New York for making a terrorist threat. More than 15,000 Alaskans voted for him, perhaps because of his party affiliation. Or maybe as a protest vote of some sort.
Independent candidate Bill Hill, a political newcomer, had the support of the Alaska Democratic Party. He is running well behind Republican Rep. Nick Begich III, who has 49.5 percent of the vote to Hill’s 40.3 percent.
James Daggett
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Alaska Public Media
4. There are tens of thousands of ballots left. No one knows how they will break, but many have guesses.
So far, election officials have counted about 216,000 votes. There are thousands of ballots left.
Ballots already counted are expected to include almost all Election Day votes and early votes cast at regional offices through the Thursday before Election Day. Additionally, it includes a number of absentee ballots.
We don’t know exactly how many ballots remain outstanding. Different analysts estimate that this figure could be between 50,000 and 75,000.
It is impossible to know which way the remaining ballots lean. And depending on who you ask, you’ll get very different answers.
If you ask pollster Ivan Moore, who runs Alaska Survey Research, the outstanding votes are in favor of Democrat Mary Peltola.
“Early voting is much, much, much more Democratic, and Election Day voting is much more Republican,” he said. “And the Election Day votes, except for Bush’s outstanding precincts, have all been counted. So it’s done. The Republicans are about as high as they’re going to be.”
Senator Sullivan’s campaign says otherwise. The campaign circulated a memo projecting a Sullivan victory — based in part on the fact that the 20,000 early votes counted late between Friday and Tuesday were cast after the publication of a New York Times article. investigation accusing Democrats of recruiting a candidate of the same name and other potential spoilers. The Peltola campaign has denied any involvement.
Of course, every Election Day vote also took place after the Times investigation.
5. Ballot Measure 2 is close but repeal is late, while Ballot Measure 3 passes easily.
As in past elections, Alaskans appear narrowly divided over ranked-choice voting, open primaries and some campaign disclosure rules aimed at shining a spotlight on big donors.
But the results so far show that Alaskans support maintaining this unique system. As of the last election night update on Wednesday afternoon, “No” on Ballot Measure 2 was in the lead with 52% of the vote.
Moore said that’s a good sign for the ballot measure’s future because he expects the ballot measure to lean left, and Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents tend to favor ranked-choice voting.
In 2024, the final results shifted significantly in favor of “No” as additional ballots were counted, ultimately leading voters to reject that year’s attempt to repeal ranked-choice voting by a narrow margin.
Ballot Measure 3, which specifies that “only” U.S. citizens can vote in Alaska’s elections, is on track to pass easily with about 70% support.
6. The blue tsunami hits Alaska with a strong ripple.
The blue tsunami that hit the Lower 48 looked more like a strong ripple when it hit Alaska on Election Day. But the national blue bath will also have a considerable impact here. For one, at least two of the three members of Alaska’s congressional delegation will be in the minority. This makes it much more difficult to pass laws. Plus, with so much blame placed on President Donald Trump for the Republican Party’s disastrous midterm results, congressional Republicans may be more likely to contradict or ignore him. Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski may have more Republican company when she votes against the Trump agenda.
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