Investigators are just beginning the long process of determining why a business jet fell from the sky in Florida after encountering a thunderstorm and crashed to the ground with such force that it created a crater and broke up the plane.
The National Transportation Safety Board is leading the investigation into the crash that killed all nine people aboard the Bahamas-bound Learjet, and it will likely take more than a year to determine the cause.
LEARN MORE: All 9 people aboard a plane that crashed in Florida have died, according to the Transportation Secretary.
Dramatic bystander videos combined with the disturbing final radio transmissions as the pilots realize their fate will give investigators important clues. The cockpit voice recorder would also be useful if investigators could find it intact.
“Our mission is to understand not only what happened, but why it happened, and to recommend changes to prevent it from happening again,” said NTSB member Tom Chapman.
Here’s what investigators are doing now and what’s next:
Investigators gather crucial evidence
The NTSB team will spend days collecting all the parts of the plane they can find. Investigators said Tuesday that pieces of a key part of the tail called the elevator, which controls the plane’s pitch, were found more than a mile from the main crater. This confirms that the plane began to break up before impact.
Chapman said investigators are seeking the Learjet’s cockpit voice recorder because it could provide crucial details about what the pilots said to each other when they encountered turbulence, ice formed on the wings and they lost control of the plane.
“This will be very important data,” Chapman said. But the impossibility of finding this recorder will not condemn the investigation. “Without that, our people are very, very good. We’re still able to do incredible detective work and figure out how things happened.”
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The co-pilot told air traffic controllers that the plane was being thrown up and down more than 700 feet (213 meters) and she asked them for a better route through the area. It is unclear why the pilots did not fly through the storms.
Torrential rains that hit Florida last week hampered the work of investigators. The crater filled with rainwater, possibly hiding parts of the wreckage underwater, and a utility pole had to be removed.
The NTSB asked anyone who finds part of the plane to report it to investigators so they can recover it.
The NTSB’s initial report will take about a month
The agency’s findings so far are limited, but its experts will release a preliminary report outlining the facts of what happened about 30 days after the accident. It will not include analysis or cause, which will be included in a more detailed report later.
The violence of the crash and the fire destroyed a large part of the plane. Any evidence investigators are able to gather will be taken to a secure hangar where they can test or try to reassemble broken components to better understand what happened.
LEARN MORE: Parts of plane’s tail found more than a mile from plane crash site in South Florida, official says
John Cox, a retired airline pilot and aviation safety expert, said he did not understand why the plane had descended from its cruising altitude of 41,000 feet (12,500 meters) as the storms approached. The pilots circled around a larger storm cell, but appeared to head directly toward a smaller, rapidly developing cell, Cox said.
“If I’m looking at thunderstorms, I’d rather be at 41 than 35. You have a better view, you’re more likely to be above it, or at least, in the very wispy tops,” Cox said. “I don’t understand why they came down.”
Investigators will try to determine whether they knew the storm cell was there, what the plane’s weather radar showed and whether the pilots checked other weather services.
Investigators will dig deeper
Weather will be one of the first key objectives of the survey. NTSB experts will work with the National Weather Service and the Federal Aviation Administration to get a better idea of what the plane encountered at about 35,000 feet (11,000 meters).
Images superimposed on the flight path on weather radar maps show the Learjet flew directly into a small red storm cell that quickly worsened.
But the agency will consider myriad factors that may have contributed to the crash.
Investigators will review maintenance records and any history of problems with the plane. They will also question officials from Upper Jets, the company that operated the flight, as well as air traffic controllers and people working at the Austin, Texas, airport where the plane departed.
Videos and photos taken by bystanders can also provide crucial clues about what happened. The NTSB will also collect surveillance footage that may show the accident.
In some high-profile accidents, the NTSB may hold investigative hearings in which investigators question people, as it did after last year’s UPS plane crash.
Final report could take more than a year
Typically, it takes the NTSB 12 to 18 months to complete an accident investigation, but complex cases may take longer. The NTSB’s approximately 400 employees conduct more than 1,200 active investigations.
The final reports contain many details about what happened and identify probable causes.
The NTSB recommends modifications to prevent similar accidents and improve safety, but it does not have the authority to require those modifications to be installed or enforced.
The responsibility for adopting these changes falls on the FAA, industry, and Congress, all of which have historically ignored the NTSB’s recommendations as too costly and burdensome.
Even when the FAA or Congress agrees with suggestions, approval of new rules can take years.
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