The third is to “strangle” as the assistants say. This would mean sticking to the status quo – the naval blockade coupled with crippling economic sanctions that leave the Iranian regime “rot” – while continuing to test its appetite for a deal. This path, however, could take months to show progress.
The big picture: The president has said for weeks that he would end the war one way or another after the election.
- One of his former advisers told Axios: “It’s one thing to lose the midterm elections. But Trump doesn’t want to look like a loser twice.”
- This leaves even his closest associates uncertain about what he will do next.
The plot: Vice President Vance, in an extraordinary statement Wednesday morning, squarely blamed the war on the Republican Party’s midterm drubbing. This adds a new political calculus to Trump’s decision.
- “The reason we lost was the war,” Vance wrote on
- Vance also cited U.S. relations with Israel as a serious handicap for Republicans.
Trump told reporters As of Wednesday, Vance’s analysis was “largely true” because the war had driven up gas prices. But Trump said he would do it again if he had to: “We had no choice. You can’t let Iran have nuclear weapons.”
- When asked when he was going to end the war, Trump replied: “Whenever I wanted to.” But it has to be done right, because they can’t have nuclear weapons. »
Behind the scenes: In recent months, Vance has led a faction within Trump’s inner circle, advising him to reach a deal with Iran to end the war. He privately accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of “being wrong about everything” regarding Iran, sources said.
- Vance warned that the war was highly unpopular and could cost Republicans the election, the sources said.
- Most of the senior officials around Trump shared Vance’s view. But Trump still favored a resumption of war. At one point, he considered launching strikes before the midterm elections, as Netanyahu was urging him to do.
- Trump decided to wait. But against the advice of his top advisers, he still supported Netanyahu in last week’s Israeli elections.
State of affairs: The U.S. military is completing preparations for a possible resumption of major combat operations in Iran, including sending more assets to the region, U.S. officials said.
- At the same time, Qatari mediators are working to secure support from the United States and Iran for a draft deal aimed at avoiding a return to fighting and possibly resuming direct negotiations in the coming days, according to regional sources.
- The mediators asked White House officials before the election what Trump would do if he lost. The president’s advisers cannot vouch one way or another, a knowledgeable source said.
- “We told everyone we wanted to see how the election would go for us first,” a U.S. official said.
The other side: Iranian officials celebrated Trump’s election defeat, saying it showed they were winning the war.
- “The Iranian nation handed Trump a strategic defeat on the battlefield and in Hormuz – and a POLITICAL DEFEAT in Washington,” Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei wrote on
Diplomats involved In mediation efforts, Trump advisers and Middle East experts have said Iran’s gloating could make the president more likely to return to war.
- “Tehran’s temptation is likely to mistake Trump’s political weakness for military weakness and abuse it, when the smarter move is to strike a deal when Washington still wants one,” Ali Vaez, deputy program director for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, told Axios.
Yes, but: Trump may choose to maintain the “no war, no deal” status quo.
- CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other advisers want Trump to let the campaign of naval blockade and economic pressure last longer, thereby tightening the screws on Iran.
The bottom line: There is no easy way for Trump to “finish the job” in Iran.
Go further: Oil prices fall after Vance’s Iran war message
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