Mississippi’s uncalled Senate elections could pose one of the biggest shocks in a midterm election cycle already filled with resounding defeats for Republican candidates.
Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, the incumbent Republican Party chairwoman, is behind Democratic candidate Scott Colom in an extraordinarily close race in normally solidly red Mississippi. Colom had 49.04 percent of the ballots counted, compared to Hyde-Smith’s 48.85 percent, with an estimate of more than 95 percent of the vote, according to the Associated Press.
Colom’s razor-thin lead grew slightly Thursday afternoon to 1,813 votes out of a total of 951,744 counted as of 6:17 p.m. ET, the AP reported. Ty Pinkins, an independent candidate, received 20,007 votes, or 2.1% of the total count.
The final result may not be available until next week, as more ballots may still arrive and be counted.
Mississippi election procedures do not include an automatic recount provision.
“Absolutely, I didn’t think it would be this close,” said Brian Anderson, a political science professor at the University of Mississippi for Women in Columbus.
Anderson said that before the election he thought Colom, a 43-year-old prosecutor, might lose by just 3 or 4 percentage points, which would have been a very strong showing in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1982.
“I’m a lot more surprised” now that Colom has a chance to win, Anderson said.
If Colom defeats Hyde-Smith, 67, he will become Mississippi’s first black senator since the Reconstruction period following the Civil War.
“Democrats have had a difficult time creating a pipeline of candidates,” Anderson said. A Colom victory would “galvanize the Democratic Party like never before,” he said.
Both candidates’ campaigns did not immediately respond to CNBC’s requests for comment.
Hyde-Smith’s X-account, released Thursday afternoon, said: “Cindy Hyde-Smith will represent Mississippi in the United States Senate for the next six years.”
“We believe thousands of votes remain to be counted in dozens of Republican counties, and we are confident these votes will strengthen his path to victory,” the message said. “Election officials are continuing the normal process of counting outstanding ballots, including absentee ballots. They must be given time to complete this work and ensure that every legal ballot is counted accurately and the voice of every Mississippian is heard.”
The message added: “We expect Democratic lawyers to pull out all the stops, and we are ready. Our goal is to finish the count and return Cindy Hyde-Smith to the Senate to continue fighting for Mississippi values.”
Also Thursday, the Republican National Committee sent a text message to subscribers, asking for $25 donations citing the hyper-close race in Mississippi and saying Hyde-Smith needed support to monitor ballot review.
“The Mississippi is the firewall, and this race is our line in the sand,” the post said.
Ironically, if Colom wins, her victory could be attributed, in some ways, to the actions taken by two Republicans: President Donald Trump and Hyde-Smith herself.
Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett, a Trump appointee, wrote the court’s 5-4 majority decision in June that upheld a Mississippi law allowing mail-in ballots mailed on Election Day to be counted if they are received within five business days.
These ballots could give Colom a margin of victory. There are also approximately 10,000 to 15,000 provisional ballots that require verification of voting eligibility.
A lawyer for the Republican National Committee, whose lawsuit claimed that federal law prohibited the counting of votes received after Election Day, noted in a brief to the Supreme Court: “Democratic voters tend to mail in their ballots later on average than Republican voters, resulting in late-arriving ballots favoring Democratic candidates.” »
At the time of the Supreme Court’s decision, Trump called it a “tremendous loss” for voters’ rights.
Hyde-Smith was appointed to her Senate seat in 2018 following the resignation of Thad Cochran and later that year won a special election for the seat. She was elected to a full term in 2020.
In 2023, she effectively blocked then-President Joe Biden’s nomination of Colom to a federal judgeship for the Northern District of Mississippi. Colom’s nomination had the support of Mississippi’s other Republican senator, Roger Wicker, and two former GOP governors.
Hyde-Smith said she opposed Colom’s nomination for reasons including his alleged support for transgender students participating in women’s sports and because his campaign for district attorney allegedly received money from billionaire George Soros.
Colom, in an April 10, 2023, letter to Hyde-Smith, said he was unaware until his hometown newspaper reported that Soros had donated to a political action committee that supported his campaign. He also wrote that he did not know why Hyde-Smith suggested that he “opposed legislation to protect female athletes.”
Colom concluded the letter by promising to be guided by the law, not his personal views on public policy, if confirmed as a judge.
“I hope you will reconsider your views on my nomination,” he wrote.
Hyde-Smith did not reconsider her views and maintained her block on the nomination.
Colom announced his candidacy for the Democratic Senate nomination in September 2025 and recently told CNN, “Not having a federal judgeship is not a motivating factor for me at all” to run.
Anderson said Hyde-Smith ran “a low-visibility campaign,” at least compared to Colom’s, and focused on voters who were traditionally expected to support her.
Hyde-Smith has repeatedly refused to debate Colom.
Colom “knows how to talk about people’s interests, and Hyde-Smith was all about values, which is great for a lot of people, but it’s all about interests right now,” Anderson said.
These interests include concerns about affordability, the war in Iran, and corruption.
Colom “brings it all up,” Anderson said.
Anderson noted that Colom’s campaign relied on a remark Hyde-Smith made during a Feb. 22 interview with a local television station.
In the interview, Hyde-Smith responded to a question about rising beef prices by saying, “You know, there are so many proteins to choose from.”
Colom’s campaign featured a video clip of this remark in an ad featuring people reacting in disbelief to Hyde-Smith’s suggestion.
“Choose another protein? a woman said in the ad. “She’s lost her mind. I’d rather choose another senator.”
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