This satellite image from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows Tropical Storm Isaias off the east coast of Mexico on Wednesday, October 7, 2026.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/via AP
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/via AP
Isaias is now the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 – and it’s heading toward the southeastern United States, according to the National Hurricane Center. Isaias strengthened into a hurricane Wednesday evening and was expected to reach the northern Gulf Coast Friday afternoon.
As of Thursday morning, Isaias was about 420 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving east-northeast at 8 mph. The storm’s maximum sustained winds were 80 mph, the hurricane center said.
A hurricane watch was issued Wednesday for a large portion of the Gulf Coast, from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida. This alert means dangerous winds could reach the region by midday Friday. Areas from the Mississippi River to Yankeetown, Florida, were placed under a storm surge watch, with a surge of five to seven feet possible.
Isaias ends an extraordinary four months without another Atlantic hurricane since the season began on June 1.
“While we expected a much below average season this year, it has certainly been surprising how quiet it has been,” Philip Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Colorado State University, told NPR.
Since 1851, only three recorded hurricane seasons have had no hurricanes until Oct. 7, Klotzbach said — while noting that some early storms might have been missed in the days before aerial reconnaissance or satellites.
This shortage is largely attributed to the Super El Niño weather phenomenon which has made strong ocean storms less likely in the Atlantic and much more likely in the Pacific. In an average year, the Atlantic would already have experienced at least five hurricanes, according to the National Hurricane Center, citing data from recent decades.
The center predicts Isaias will bring up to 10 inches of rain to some areas, with 3 to 6 inches possible in an area stretching from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
Isaias is expected to turn northeast Thursday and Friday; The hurricane center said forecast models were somewhat divided on the exact timing of these changes, which would determine where the storm would make landfall.
After strengthening into a tropical storm on Tuesday, Isaias moved over a part of the Gulf of Mexico where conditions are very favorable for intensification, with sea surface temperatures around 87 degrees. Such warm ocean water helps tropical storms strengthen and attract moisture, increasing their potential precipitation. Due to these conditions, recent forecasts have strengthened predictions for the storm’s strength.
The inhibiting effects of El Niño storms are not as strong in the Gulf of Mexico as in the tropical Atlantic, Klotzbach said. The new hurricane, he added, formed with the help of a cyclonic “gyre” system that can generate storms across Central America. It is responsible for both Isaias in the Atlantic and Tropical Depression 20E in the Pacific.
A potentially positive aspect of the forecast is that Isaias is expected to move quickly over land after landfall, rather than flying over areas that are already flooded.
“Isaias will move quickly when it comes ashore, which will hopefully reduce the risk of catastrophic flooding,” Klotzbach said. But, he adds, the storm will still bring dangerous amounts of rain.
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