Italian law granting bonus seats to election winners: why it’s controversial | Election news

The Italian Parliament votes on Thursday a new electoral law that would make it easier for election winners to form a majority government.

The law, proposed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, would grant additional seats to any party or coalition obtaining more than 42 percent of seats in both parliamentary chambers, thus guaranteeing a majority.

Meloni presented the legislation as a path toward greater stability in Italy’s political system, which has often been led by fragile coalition governments. His critics, however, say the move is actually aimed at boosting his own chances in next year’s elections.

Here’s what we know about electoral law and what it means for Italian politics:

What is the current electoral system in Italy?

Italy currently has a mixed electoral system for its 600-seat parliament, with around 36 percent of MPs directly elected in constituencies where the candidate with the most votes wins, and the rest decided by proportional representation.

The system, called “Rosatellum,” has been in place since 2017. It encourages coalition building but can produce fragmented results that make it difficult to form a governing majority.

What would the new law change?

The new legislation would replace the mixed electoral system with a fully proportional system and grant additional seats to the party or coalition that wins the most seats if it obtains at least 42 percent in both chambers.

The bonus could reach 70 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, which has 400 members, and up to 35 seats in the Senate, which has 200 elected members.

This means that if a party or coalition reaches the threshold of 42 percent share in both houses, it will have greater power to govern. If no party or coalition meets the threshold, representation would be decided proportionally.

The new law would also require coalitions to announce their prime ministerial candidates before elections. Rado Fonda, head of research at Italian pollster SWG, told the Reuters news agency that the provision could “prove problematic for the center-left, potentially forcing a quick leadership contest and revealing divisions that could weaken the bloc.”

Meloni, who currently leads the country’s longest-serving government since World War II, said reform would help stabilize the country rather than serve a single political group. “Whoever wins the election will have enough numbers to govern,” she said.

What stage is the legislation at?

The bill has already been approved by the Senate and now faces a final vote by secret ballot in the Chamber of Deputies.

Giovanni Orsina, a political scientist at Luiss Guido Carli University in Rome, predicted the law would be “extremely likely” to pass.

If that fails, Meloni has announced she will resign.

Why is the legislation controversial?

Opponents say the law is undemocratic because it could potentially grant a winning coalition a disproportionate level of power in Parliament.

They also say the legislation aims to favor Meloni, whose Brothers of Italy (Fdl) party is preparing for a tough electoral battle next year.

Riccardo Magi, leader of the liberal Plus d’Europe party, who went on hunger strike to protest the proposed reform, called it an “anti-democratic law” that risks giving a minority bloc a large majority in Parliament.

Senator Matteo Renzi, who heads the Italia Viva party, accused Italy’s governing coalition of promoting electoral reform out of fear of losing power.

Other critics pointed out that the law would do little to stabilize the political system if no party or coalition reaches the threshold of 42 percent in both chambers – a relatively high bar.

“This could produce a Parliament without a majority, making post-election negotiations necessary to form a government,” Vincenzo Emanuele, professor of political science at the Luiss Guido Carli University of Rome and member of the Italian Center for Electoral Studies (CISE), told Al Jazeera. “Even relatively minor changes in coalition composition could mean the difference between a clear parliamentary majority and a situation of political deadlock. »

When will the next elections take place in Italy and what do the polls show?

Italy’s next general election is due to take place by December 22, 2027, although the government can call elections earlier if it wishes.

Currently, Meloni’s FDL leads all other parties in the polls, with 27 percent support, according to poll aggregator Politico. Its coalition partners, Lega and Forza Italia, enjoy a combined support of 12 percent, according to Politico, bringing the coalition’s share to 39 percent.

The Fdl’s polls have been shaken by support for a new far-right group, Futuro Nazionale (National Future), Reuters reported. He currently enjoys 7.8 percent support, according to Italian pollster SWG.

In opposition, the Democratic Party (PD) gets 21 percent, the Five Star Movement (M5S) 12 percent and the Alliance of Greens and Lefts (AVS) 6 percent, according to Politico. The Italy Viva (IV) and More Europe parties each have 2 percent support.

Emanuele said the current landscape means the proposed electoral law would not necessarily favor Meloni and could even benefit the opposition.

He said recent simulations carried out by CISE showed that a center-left coalition including the PD and M5S could potentially reach 44 percent of the vote, guaranteeing a “comfortable parliamentary majority”, although this could change if Meloni allies with National Future.

“Reform does not in itself favor the incumbent government: its effects will depend essentially on how competing coalitions are formed,” Emanuele said.