WASHINGTON — Nearly 2,500 votes separate Democrat Scott Colom and Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in the U.S. Senate race in Mississippi, and votes are still being counted Friday. Here’s why the race is still too early to call.
An unknown number of ballots are outstanding
To call a race, The Associated Press relies on its estimate of the number of votes remaining to be counted to ensure that the trailing candidate has no way of overtaking the leading candidate. The AP calculates this value based on factors such as past turnout, population changes, voter registration totals and any early turnout figures provided by election officials. The estimate of the number of votes remaining to be counted is constantly revised on election night and in the days that follow.
As of Friday morning, the AP’s outstanding vote estimate stood at about 44,000 votes for the Mississippi Senate race. After getting updated information from across the state, the estimate as of 4:45 p.m. ET is now closer to 30,000 votes. However, this figure could change as more details are gathered.
Many Mississippi counties, including larger counties like Hinds and Rankin, have historically reported their absentee and provisional ballots after Election Day results have been counted. In the 2024 general election, 12.7% of votes cast were counted after all precincts were reported on election night, and the AP estimates reflect this. In some counties, it’s unclear how many absentee ballots have yet to be counted. With little information about the process, PA estimates are largely based on past reporting models.
Each state votes differently and Mississippi’s particularities come into play
Most Mississippi voters cast ballots in person on Election Day. Only a limited number of people vote by mail, with the state requiring voters to provide an excuse for not being able to vote in person.
Mississippi also has some of the strictest voter ID laws in the country. If voters are unable to provide a photo ID at the polling place, election officials let them fill out a provisional ballot, which is only counted if the voter presents their ID to officials within five business days of Election Day. A voter may also need to cast a provisional ballot if their voter registration status is found to be inactive when they arrive at the polls. This can happen if it is mistakenly believed that a voter is no longer eligible to vote while officials are maintaining the electoral rolls.
Unlike other states, there is no central vote reporting system in Mississippi, and few counties post election results online. Instead, AP journalists and analysts communicate directly with each of the state’s 82 counties to get the latest information available on vote counts.
Some counties release preliminary absentee voting results on election night, while others release them in the days following the election. In Mississippi, mail-in ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and received within five business days of the election, or Nov. 10, to be counted, meaning the number of mail-in votes may continue to increase after the election.
Counties are required to report provisional ballot results when they report their certified results to the state 10 days after the Nov. 13 election. On Thursday, Mississippi Secretary of State Michael Watson said about 7,000 provisional ballots had been processed, of which about 80% had been accepted.
What happens next?
The AP is continually working to collect additional data on the number of outstanding ballots.
As of 4:45 p.m. ET Friday, the AP estimates that about 7 percent of ballots had yet to be counted in Hinds County, a Democratic stronghold. In 2024, about 15% of votes had yet to be counted in Hinds County, even though all Election Day precincts had reported. The AP did not receive another update on votes in the county until after the state certified its election. In Hinds, Colom currently has a lead of around 47,000 votes over Hyde-Smith.
In red Rankin County, where President Donald Trump won 73% of the vote in 2024, the AP currently estimates that about 2,200 votes are outstanding. County officials told the AP on Friday that they had 1,667 provisional ballots, 282 mail-in ballots received and 138 mail-in ballots outstanding. It is unclear whether all of these votes will be counted. In 2024, approximately 23% of votes had yet to be counted after all Election Day precincts reported in Rankin County. The AP received a vote update five days later, bringing the tally to 95% of the votes cast, and did not receive the final 5% until the state certified the election.
Could there be a recount?
Mississippi does not have an automatic recount and does not allow candidates to request a recount. Recounts in the state only take place if there is a court order.
The AP can declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine that the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
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Associated Press writers Lauren Johnert in Washington and Hannah Barton in Chicago contributed to this report.
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