PARIS (AP) — Ten years ago, American President Donald Trump Donald Trump’s victory sent a populist shock wave across the West. Today, Europe is wondering whether mid-term rout of his Republican Party will send one back.
European opponents of right-wing populism see the American vote as the latest sign of its hesitant progress. Since April, voters have ousted the Hungarian party Viktor Orbanfinished Aleksandar Vucic’s speech long hold on Serbia and blocked the return of the Bolsonaro family in Brazil.
“When cracks in power become more visible, it can trigger a cascading effect,” said Péter Krekó, director of the Budapest Political Capital Institute.
Nowhere would such a stunt matter more than in France, where nationalists Marine Le Pen is leading a presidential election in six months that could put the European Union’s only nuclear arsenal and a U.N. Security Council veto in the hands of the far right.
The recent defeats of the populist right could shake the woman vying to become the first Madam President of France. But the anger that punishes populists in power, from Budapest to Belgrade, could bring her to power – precisely because her party, the National Rally, has never governed France.
Le Pen also faces a legal cliffhanger. The highest French court wants to rule on his call against a conviction for embezzlement in early April, just a few weeks before the first round of voting; if she decides against it, she could campaign and face voters wearing electronic tags.
“He could still be banned from running, and now Americans are directing this kind of rebuke to Trump’s populism,” said Carmen Artaza, 31, an American-educated Parisian. “It’s definitely going to disrupt her, disrupt her campaign.”
But in France, “the far right is still on the rise”, believes Gilles Ivaldi, political scientist at Sciences Po.
Analysts say voters who handed Democrats control of the U.S. House and Senate may have punished Trump’s record, especially on the economymore than his “America First” ideas.
Populists also continue to win some elections. Such candidates have taken over the presidency of Poland, Chile and Colombia since mid-2025.
A series of defeats since last year
“The trend toward the far right has been the defining feature of 21st century politics,” said Daphne Halikiopoulou, a professor of politics at Britain’s University of York.
But recently, the defeats of the anti-liberal populist camp have accumulated.
“The midterm elections are a very favorable result for the center left, and this could hamper the far right,” she believes.
Leaders or parties espousing nationalist and anti-immigration policies have suffered at least eight national electoral setbacks in about 18 months: in Romania, the Netherlands, Portugal, Hungary, Sweden, Serbia, Brazil and now the United States.
And many were categorical: Portugal elected moderate socialist Antonio José Seguro against far-right populist André Ventura by two to one; Hungary ended Orbán’s 16 years in power; Serbia’s Vucic conceded defeat last month to a student-led protest movement; and Romania chose a pro-European centrist Nicusor Dan against the nationalist George Simion.
Last month, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly defeated Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
Other votes reduced the ranks of anti-immigration parties. Geert Wilders’ party lost 11 seats in the Netherlands following the rise of the centrist party. In Sweden, the far-right Sweden Democrats lost 11 seats, with the left-wing opposition gaining a narrow majority.
The results “clearly show that far-right policies are not popular,” said Aurélien Mondon, a political expert at Britain’s University of Bath.
Even some on the populist right see a trend. The US midterm elections “join the defeats of Bolsonaro and Orbán,” Markus Frohnmaier, a senior lawmaker with the far-right AfD, wrote on X.
All eyes are on France
Each defeat can make the next one easier to imagine. Voters must believe that “an increasingly authoritarian regime with vast resources can be defeated,” Krekó said. “The mid-term results helped create that feeling. »
The French left seized on the result, while the far right gave it a Gallic shrug.
“There is no inevitability in politics,” said French center-left presidential candidate Raphaël Glucksmann, calling it “a message of hope for all.”
The National Rally, which welcomed Trump’s return to power last year, is now keeping him at bay.
“What happens in other countries is none of my business,” party president Jordan Bardella told RTL radio.
Sebastien Chenu, who leads the far-right party’s lawmakers in the National Assembly, called the vote “a rejection of Donald Trump’s policies” in a statement to the Associated Press, blaming inflation and fuel prices driven by a war with Iran “that he himself started.”
In Germany, AfD co-leader Alice Weidel blamed “the disastrous consequences of the war in Iran”.
The message from European nationalists: the defeat is Trump’s, not theirs.
After three failed attempts, Le Pen has never looked stronger, according to French pollsters.
Yet the race to become his main challenger is wide open, with far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, center-right former prime minister Édouard Philippe and Glucksmann among the contenders.
Losing votes, shaping the agenda
“Losing an election is certainly a sign of decline. But it’s not sudden death,” Halikiopoulou said. “In many cases, far-right parties lose because their competitors adopt their positions. »
In Britain, the Labor Party has hardened its position on immigration, notably under former Prime Minister Keir Starmer, to fend off Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party.
In France, the Senate last week approved a bill from President Emmanuel Macron’s government that could force anyone who knowingly joins a violent group to pay up to 10,000 euros ($11,200) for what others destroy, and allow the state to cut family benefits to cover that – a long-held idea of Le Pen.
The real danger, according to Mondon, is “the failure of the dominant elite” to counter the far right. A decade under Macron brought “the integration of far-right arguments”.
Le Pen’s advantage: she has never governed
For Le Pen, the lesson of the midterm elections could be that populists lose less than incumbent candidates.
Anger against incumbents has been building for years. In 2024, for the first time since records began, every ruling party that participated in national elections in a developed country lost votes, according to ParlGov, a database from the University of Bremen.
The far right thrives where it sits in opposition and centrists govern, such as in France, Austria and Germany, where the AfD scored a record 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt regional elections in September.
Anger and the thirst for radical change, embodied by both Le Pen and Mélenchon, now dominate French politics, Ivaldi said.
The election will show whether there is “still a barrier against the far right,” he said. Voters across the political spectrum rallied behind Macron to block him in 2017 and 2022.
For now, he said, France “could well experience its own ‘Trump moment,’ like the United States in 2016.”
Voters showed they could oust populists from power. France will show if it can stop someone from winning.
Halikiopoulou put it simply: “Was the midterm elections a blow to Trump? Yes. Were they important? Absolutely. But the fact remains that Trump is still in power.”
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Associated Press writer Geir Moulson in Berlin contributed to this report.
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