Kimi Antonelli has been the reference throughout the Formula 1 weekend in Sao Paulo so far. The new world champion was not only the fastest driver over a single lap in Free Practice 2, but he also made a strong statement during the long-duration simulations. Mercedes therefore appears to be in the strongest position for the rest of the weekend. Ferrari, on the other hand, had an extremely difficult Friday.
In qualifying simulations, Antonelli was 0.253 seconds faster than Lando Norris in the McLaren and 0.259 seconds ahead of Max Verstappen in the Red Bull. However, it was the race simulations towards the end of the session that offered a more significant indication of Sunday’s prospects.
Different stint durations and tire compounds must be taken into account when analyzing the data. Tire degradation is particularly high in Brazil, meaning that even a difference of just a few laps can have a noticeable impact on average lap times. When the numbers were adjusted accordingly, Antonelli also established himself as the fastest driver over a long period of time.
The Mercedes driver completed a particularly impressive 20-lap stint on soft tires. His teammate George Russell was the second-fastest driver, although his adjusted average was already 0.311 seconds per lap slower. Max Verstappen followed in third, 0.474 seconds per lap behind Antonelli.
Antonelli sees room for improvement, but Mercedes remains optimistic
Antonelli himself was happy with the session but acknowledged there was still room for improvement in the race simulations.
“It wasn’t bad,” he said. “I felt good with the car on just one lap. There’s still a bit of work to do in the long run. But overall I feel good and I’m looking forward to tomorrow.”
Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes
Photo by: Guido De Bortoli / LAT Images via Getty Images
Mercedes deputy team principal Bradley Lord echoed the positive assessment. The team had a good start to the weekend with their car, although both drivers were still dealing with understeer issues – a problem which has largely disappeared following the improvement package introduced in Malaysia.
Nonetheless, Lord believes Mercedes’ long-term pace is comparable to Norris and Verstappen. He currently puts Ferrari half a step behind, although he expects the Scuderia to make progress when temperatures rise on Saturday.
Mercedes particularly strong in the second and third sectors
A closer look at industry times reveals where Mercedes gains its advantage. In the first sector, the Silver Arrows were relatively slow. Ferrari, in particular, initially set a strong pace in this section.
However, the situation has changed considerably in the second and third sectors. The second sector is the most technical and twisty part of the circuit, while the third is largely focused on top speed on the straights. Mercedes was exceptionally strong in both sections. This suggests a well-balanced car that behaves convincingly not only on straights but also in corners.
George Russell, Mercedes, Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes
Photo by: Alastair Staley / LAT Images via Getty Images
Verstappen, on the other hand, consistently lost time to Mercedes in all three sectors. So there is no area that can be identified as Red Bull’s main weakness. McLaren showed a similar pattern, with Norris also unable to attribute his deficit to any particular section of the circuit.
The McLaren driver admitted Mercedes looked stronger in the second session.
“FP1 was definitely a surprise – pleasant. In FP2 we struggled a little more than Mercedes. Basically we were two tenths of a second ahead every lap,” Norris said.
At the same time, he was encouraged by the team’s latest improvements. Although he had initially only used some of the new components on his car during testing sessions, they had already produced the desired effect. McLaren plans to put the full package together on Saturday.
Ferrari in difficulty: more than a second late
The biggest surprise of Friday, however, was Ferrari’s disappointing performance. Even in qualifying simulations, Lewis Hamilton was 0.45 seconds off the pace. On the relatively short Sao Paulo circuit, this represents a considerable deficit.
The race pace seemed even more worrying. Charles Leclerc’s adjusted long-distance average was 1.072 seconds per lap slower than Antonelli’s. Hamilton was almost identical, losing 1.090 seconds per lap. In this regard, Ferrari is no longer close to the leading group and finds itself firmly in the fight with the upper midfield.
Dino Beganovic, Ferrari
Photo by: Guido De Bortoli / LAT Images via Getty Images
The sectoral distribution is particularly revealing. Ferrari can still keep pace in the first sector and even seems competitive there. The Scuderia, however, lost ground in the second sector, dominated by the corners. There is another problem on the straights: in the third sector, Ferrari sometimes only manages to keep up with Aston Martin.
Team principal Frédéric Vasseur confirmed after the session that the team was having difficulty with car balance and energy deployment.
“We had some problems with the deployment of energy during the laps. Everything still needs to be fine-tuned. On his best lap, he lost a few tenths in the straight. I would say it’s not a disaster,” he explained.
From Vasseur’s point of view, the bigger problem is that Ferrari has yet to find the underlying feel it wants from the car.
“We know we still have a lot of work to do on the balance. The balance wasn’t good, it wasn’t great. I think the asphalt is the complete opposite of what we had a week ago. It creates a lot of work and makes things a lot different than last week.”
Racing Bulls, Audi and Alpine set for tight midfield battle
Further down the order, an intriguing three-way fight looms between Racing Bulls, Audi and Alpine. All three teams are closely tied in long-term analysis, meaning even relatively small differences could decide multiple positions on Saturday and Sunday.
Arvid Lindblad, Racing Bulls
Photo by: Colin McMaster / LAT Images via Getty Images
Gabriel Bortoleto was classified as the fastest driver outside the lead group in FP2. Competing in front of his home crowd, the Brazilian also impressed on his Audi’s long runs, recording an adjusted average deficit of 0.933 seconds per lap to Antonelli.
Liam Lawson was slightly quicker in the Racing Bulls, finishing 0.925 seconds back. Pierre Gasly also kept Alpine in contention with a deficit of 1.041 seconds. The battle between these three teams therefore promises to be particularly close for the rest of the weekend.
Haas, Williams, Cadillac and Aston Martin still adrift
A larger gap opens up behind this midfield battle. Oliver Bearman was the next driver in order, losing 1.618 seconds per lap in the Haas. Alexander Albon followed in the Williams, 1.770 seconds off the pace.
Cadillac isn’t completely out of contention at the back of the pack. Sergio Perez recorded a deficit of 1.919 seconds per lap, putting him ahead of Carlos Sainz in the second Williams and both Aston Martin drivers. Rookie Rafael Camara was also unable to get ahead of the Cadillac.
Aston Martin, meanwhile, had a difficult Friday. The expected top speed disadvantage in the third sector was not compensated for in the other sections of the circuit. Overall, the team was 2.321 seconds per lap slower than Antonelli on the long stints.
Heavy tire degradation points to another two-stop race
The tires will be one of the deciding factors on Sunday. Pirelli opted for slightly softer compounds than those used last year. In 2025, compounds C2 to C4 were selected for the Brazilian Grand Prix. This year, the range goes from C3 to C5. As a result, last year’s soft tire is equivalent to this year’s medium tire.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes
Photo by: Sam Bloxham / LAT Images via Getty Images
Tire degradation was already particularly visible during long-term simulations, averaging around 0.15 seconds per lap. This is particularly important at Interlagos, where the high demands placed on tires have historically made the Brazilian Grand Prix a two-stage race.
Antonelli’s 20-lap stint on soft tires is therefore particularly impressive given the high levels of degradation. However, no compound should be ruled out for racing at this stage. Instead, all three tire options could play a role on Sunday.
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